Ottawa at Atlanta

Ottawa made a nice run at it, but they learned after last game that the playoffs won't be in the cards this year. Atlanta's hopes are dim, but they are still alive. That provides very different motivation for each of these teams in this game. One team just realized all the work they put in for the whole season is for naught. I expect Ottawa to be a bit dejected and flat, making a road victory very difficult. The other team has a reason to play hard, and the home crowd to cheer them on. This is a must win for the Thrashers as they follow this game with a 5-game road trip. They can't afford to lose at home if they want to keep any playoff hopes alive. The Senators are just 15-22 on the road this season, losing on average 2.4 to 3.2. Atlanta's offense is better and so is their defense. When facing good offense like Atlanta's (29+ shots on goal and 17%+ power play conversion per game), Ottawa is just 6-20 this season. After a big game (win by 2+ goals), Ottawa is just 3-13 this season. I like the more motivated, better team in Atlanta here.