Ottawa at Anaheim

We've made a bundle on the Senators this postseason and we'll look to ride them again as a road underdog tonight in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals. How can we go against a team playing this well? The Senators are 12-3 and have knocked off all three prior opponents with relative ease in five games. They crushed the President's Trophy winner Buffalo, starting out with two road wins in a tough environment. If they can do that, they can win this game. Sure, Anaheim has also been impressive but the line value is with the Senators here as they have at least a 50% chance of winning this game. Both teams have played inspired defense in the playoffs - it's why they are here. Each has allowed just 2.1 goals per game. But, Ottawa's offense has been better. They have averaged 3.2 per game while the Ducks have managed just 2.6. While not terrible, 2.6 goals per game for the Ducks is a concern. It's a full half-point lower than their season average which means that tough playoff defenses have had an effect on them. And, they will be facing a very tough defense in this series. Ottawa is 12-5 this season vs. the elite teams in the league (those averaging 0.5+ goals per game margin of victory). Anaheim fans should also be worried about the long 7-day break for the Ducks as they are just 5-11 the past two seasons coming off 3+ days of rest.