New Jersey at Tampa Bay

In the past nine NHL playoff seasons, a #7 seed has knocked off a #2 seed and this may be the series this year. This should be a close game but we'll give the edge to the home team. Holmqvist showed up last game after a bad start in game one as the Lightning evened the series at 1-1. Holmqvist is really subpar but New Jersey just can't seem to take advantage of him or other weak goalies. The Devils are just 17-31 vs. goalies who save 89.5% or less of shots the past two seasons including 1-6 in late season play. This season since the midway point they are below .500 vs. teams that allow 3+ goals per game. They are also just 9-14 their last 23 on the road in the first round of the playoffs. We'll back the home team with the momentum for even money.