Montreal at Toronto

This is expected to be a high scoring affair. We think it will be lower than most expect and we like the home team. Recent play would indicate this game going over the total but on the season, Montreal's defense is better than it has shown recently and Toronto's isn't as bad as it has shown lately either. Prior to the last three games in which they gave up 18 goals, Toronto held five of their prior seven opponents to 2 goals or less. The Leafs are 15-11 this season vs. winning teams (8-4 in their last 12). They are also 12-5 vs. the last 17 teams they have faced with poor defenses (those allowing 30+ shots on goal per game). Montreal is just 2-10 the past two seasons on the road after having won 6+ of their last eight games. Toronto is 16-7 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 3+ goals per game. Montreal is 15-8 UNDER this season off a road win including 8-1 UNDER if the win was by one goal.