Carolina at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay has been amazing at home this season. They are 6-2, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals per game! They are scoring 3.9 per game. Carolina is also averaging near 4 goals per game but they don't play the kind of defense that the Lighting do at home. Carolina has won four of their last five but they have played some real chumps. They were favorites in all five of those games inclding a -210 or higher favorite in three of them! This Tampa Bay team beat them 5-1 as a +215 underdog! The Panthers also have a history of not being able to keep these kinds of runs going. Since last season, they are 8-19 after having won 3 out of their last four games and 2-9 after having won 5+ out of their last seven games. The Lightning are 26-13 OVER at home vs. teams at 60%+ the past decade and 28-14 OVER since last season vs. poor defensive teams. Carolina is 10-1 OVER in their last elven games after scoring 5+ goals in two straight games. They are also 7-1 OVER since last season after 5+ straight games in which they got 30+ shots on goal. We'll take Tampa by 1.5 and the OVER.