Boston at Toronto

Eleven of the last fifteen in this series have gone UNDER the total but most of those games had totals set higher than this one. Toronto teed off on the Bruins for 10 goals last game and we like Boston's chances to pull of a big upset here, motivated by revenge. Boston has quietly won six of eight games scoring close to 4 goals per game. Toronto's defense is very susceptible as they have allowed 3.3 per game on the season and 3.6 of late. This is a good matchup for Boston as they are 7-3 this season on the road vs. poor defensive teams that allow 3+ per game. The Bruins are 15-6 to the OVER revenging a loss the past two seasons. Toronto just 12-17 at home on the year and a ridiculous 3-9 here vs. losing teams! They seem to play down to their competition and that's what we'll be banking on here.