Atlanta at Florida

Atlanta's been on a tear winning five straight. But only one of those came on the road. In that game they were favored and won by a goal. Now after three cupcake home games, they travel to Florida and it won't be as easy. Road favorites that are scoring 2.9+ goals per game off four wins by 2+ goals are only 11-27 (29%) over the past decade as lines get out of whack. It's just hard to sustain that kind of performance night after night. Atlanta is in fact 5-11 this season after having won 5+ out of their last 7 games. Florida is 9-1 this season following two games in which they scored less than three goals. Take Florida +1.5 goals here. Only once in the last eight matchups between these teams has more than six goals been scored. Atlanta is 19-13 UNDER on the road and they have played in only one game that went OVER in their last six. Florida is a more balanced team having split their home games OVER-UNDER. They can score but also play solid defense. On the road vs. poor defensive teams, Atlanta is 10-3 UNDER this season. Florida is 23-13 UNDER vs. great offensive teams (3+ goals per game) and 21-14 UNDER vs. terrible defensive teams (3+ goals per game). Finally, Atlanta is 14-3 UNDER on the road after playing in a very high scoring game (8+ total goals) the past two seasons.