Anaheim at Edmonton

This has been a whacky, whacky playoffs as the underdogs keep winning as witnessed by Edmonton taking the first two in this series on the road at +145 and +155. I'm sticking with what my numbers tell me and they tell me Edmonton is the play tonight. Edmonton can take a commanding 3-0 lead with a win here at home. Anaheim hasn't won here since February 1999. Edmonton is doing so well in the playoffs which really isn't too much of a surprise in hindsight. They are 25-15 this season vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.3+ goals per game and 21-14 vs. teams that score 3+ goals per game since the midway point. In the playoffs, they are holding opponents to just 2.2 goals per game. Anaheim is struggling a bit offensively and with the way the Oilers are playing, and the fact that Edmonton is 9-1 vs. Anaheim over the past three seasons, I like the Oilers to win this one.