New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs

New York is 27-19-3 OVER and Toronto is 24-21-2 OVER this season and both goalies who are expected to start tonight have goals-against averages of more than 3.00. Ilya Sorokin is likely for the Islanders and he owns a 3.17 GAA and this will be his first start since Jan. 23. Sorokin has allowed three or more goals in four of his past five games. Ilya Samsonov is confirmed for the Maple Leafs and he is 8-3-6 with a 3.36 goals-against average and .878 save percentage. The past four meetings have gone OVER, including both this season as the Islanders won each 4-3 in overtime. New York is 9-1 OVER versus the Atlantic Division and 12-3 OVER against Eastern Conference teams. Toronto is 7-2 OVER against the Metropolitan Division the OVER is 23-9-1 the past 33 meetings between these teams. Play the OVER.

Toronto has won four in a row while allowing only three goals during the streak, including a 7-1 trouncing of San Jose on Tuesday when Mitchell Marner had two goals and two assists and Martin Jones stopped 22 of 23 shots. Jones is confirmed for tonight's game and he is 8-3-0 with a sparkling 1.97 goals-against average and a .934 save percentage with two shutouts. New York has lost four of five following a 5-2 defeat against Vancouver two nights ago. The Islanders have allowed 16 goals their past four games and Ilya Sorokin will be in net and he is 12-8-8 with a 3.20 GAA this season. The Maple Leafs are 5-0 against teams that scored two or fewer goals their previous game and the Islanders are 2-10 after scoring two or fewer. New York has lost four of five following a loss of at least three goals. Take the Maple Leafs as a Max Play. 

Toronto has won four of five, including its past two games against Ottawa and Nashville and Ilya Samsonov is likely in net tonight after shutting out the Predators 4-0 with 18 saves on Saturday. The Maple Leafs have won five of the past seven meetings with the New York Islanders, who beat Los Angeles 3-2 in overtime on Saturday. Samsonov is 5-1-3 and will be getting more starts with Joseph Woll on the injured list. Ilya Sorokin is probable for the Islanders and he is 7-4-6 with a 3.12 goals-against average. Sorokin twice has allowed five goals his past four appearances and those were against New Jersey and San Jose and he currently has career lows in save percentage (.913) and goals-against average (3.12). Take the Maple Leafs as a Max Play.

Toronto is on a 16-9 run with great balance. The offense is eighth in the NHL in goals scored (3.42 per game) and shooting percentage, while the defense is Top 10 in save percentage (.911) and third in goals allowed (2.67 per game). Toronto is 51-27 against winning teams, plus 65-35 versus teams that average 2.85+ goals. New York is home from a three-game West Coast trip, playing six of their last nine on the road. They won the last two games of the trip but are 0-7 off two straight road victories, plus 2-7 after scoring four goals or more in back-to-back contests. The Islanders are 21st in goals scored and 26-49 versus winning teams. They've also lost four of the last five against Toronto getting outscored 21-10. Play Toronto.

Toronto lost its third in five games and it was as a huge favorite on Saturday when the Maple Leafs were upset by lowly Montreal 3-2 in overtime. Now they face New York with Ilya Sorokin likely in net and he has played better than his 15-15-4 record indicates this season as he owns a 2.37 goals-against average and .924 save percentage with three shutouts. The Islanders won the only meeting this season 3-2 in overtime in November and they have won four straight after allowing at least five goals their previous game and Toronto has lost four of five against a team that gave up that many. We're getting good line value with the underdog in this encounter and play the Islanders.