San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Scoring in the NFL averaged 49.6ppg in 2020, and it is now 43.9 in 2023. The scoring is down and yet the UNDER has gone 84-60-1 ATS. (69-43 ATS since week 3). San Francisco after three straight losses said enough last week, and destroyed Jacksonville 34-3. Tampa Bay played a defensive gem of their own allowing just six points to the Tennessee Titans. Tampa averages fewer than 20ppg but stay competitive because the defense allows fewer than 20ppg as well. The Buc's are 7-2 on the season to the UNDER. San Francisco got its defensive swagger back last week, and I coud see them allowing the limited Buc's offense to very few points. Baker Mayfield is 28-18 to the under in 46 career starts as a dog. Make the play UNDER the total.

Jimmy Garoppolo finally gets to start in a regular season game after suffering a torn ACL and missing all but three games in 2018. He's fortunate to be facing what was a weak Tampa Bay secondary last season with not much improvement this year. The Buccaneers' pass defense gave up 34 touchdowns with only nine interceptions, although the Bucs did beat the 49ers 27-9 in November in a game that went UNDER by 18.5 points. Nick Mullens was the San Francisco starter in that game and he threw two interceptions while completing 18-of-32 for 221 yards. Tampa Bay went UNDER in five of its last six games last season and the Buccs have stayed UNDER in five of their last six home games. San Francisco is 5-0 UNDER the last five years in Week 1. This can be considered a true revenge game for the Niners after their ugly loss here last year and the defense will be bolstered by Dee Ford's debut with the team after being acquired from the Chiefs. Ford recorded 42 solo tackles, 13 sacks and seven forced fumbles in 2018 and will cause trouble for Jamies Winston who like Garoppolo, still has to prove himself even after all these years. The Niners are 6-2 ATS over the last eight years in opening week and look for that trend to continue. Take the 49ers and UNDER.

Tampa Bay has lost four in a row and seven of its last eight games after it self-destructed again and lost 38-35 to the New York Giants last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and was relieved by Jameis Winston, who did have two touchdown passes before throwing the game-clinching interception with less than a minute to play.  Fitzpatrick went 13-for-21 for 167 yards and Winston finished 12-of-16 for 199 yards. Coach Dirk Koetter said he will start Winston in this game, but no matter who plays, the Buccaneers have been plagued by turnovers all season. San Francisco came off a 34-3 win against Oakland and lost a close one to the Giants two weeks ago before heading into its bye week. Nick Mullens will get his first road start after giving the 49ers some hope to salvage something from this season. Mullens finished 27-of-39 for 250 yards and a touchdown and two picks versus the Giants. Matt Breida was another bright spot at running back as he gained 101 yards on 17 carries. The Niners had gone UNDER their previous three games and they are 15-6 UNDER their last 21 Novenber games. The UNDER is 11-4 in the Buccaneers' last 15 home games. Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS its last eight games overall and it is 3-16 ATS its last 19 games as home favorites. Play the 49ers and the UNDER.

Tampa Bay had the week off after winning its second game of the season, 17-14, over Carolina, but the Buccaneers were fortunate to win as Panthers backup quarterback Derek Anderson threw an ill-conceived pass inside the Bucs' 10-yard line that was intercepted and turned the game around. Tampa Bay is #23 in total offense in yards and #27 scoring at just 18.8 points per game. Jameis Winston was 18 of 30 for 219 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers. San Francisco still is looking for its second win of the season after a loss at Buffalo. Colin Kaepernick got the start and was 13 of 29 for 187 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. He also rushed for 66 yards on eight carries. The Buccs are 2-7 ATS their last nine games overall and 1-4 ATS after a win. These teams haven't met since 2013 when the 49ers won 33-14 on the road. Tampa Bay already has lost 40-7 on the road at Arizona on Sept. 18th. Look for the home field to finally help the Niners get into the win column again. Play the 49ers.