NFL Sharp Bets: What are they?
If you hang around any sports book long enough during football season, you'll hear someone say, "Uh-oh...the Sharps are on the other side."
But who are these NFL Sharps? And why do they elicit such awe in sports betting circles?
Sharps are the skilled bettors who win. They are the small group of wise bettors who tend to beat the sportsbooks long term. They are often big-money bettors for this reason and they are feared by the sportsbooks like draftkings, betmgm, etc.
The average bettor wagers small amounts on NFL sides, totals, and parlays. The oddsmakers aren't concerned about where the small money is going. A common rule among oddsmakers and books is that if the NFL betting public loves one team, they're probably on the wrong side. Sometimes the average bettor will be correct, but over the course of a season, the frenzied betting public will usually pick more losers than winners.
It's the sharp bets—far more significant sums of money from a handful of regular skilled bettors—that get the attention of the oddsmakers.
Who is NOT an NFL Sharp in NFL Public Betting?
Bookmakers refer to bettors in two categories: "Sharps” and “Squares." The Sharps are feared, they’re a handful of people who are capable of putting them out of business. Everyone else is considered a square—the unsophisticated sports bettors who lose six out of 10 bets (or worse) regularly. Almost all bettors fall into the Squares category. These recreational bettors are in it for fun simply to have action on games. They wager small sums, bet too many parlays, and tend to be clueless about bankroll management and betting discipline.
The Square's Routine For NFL Picks
Squares will casually examine betting lines Sunday morning and place a few NFL betting picks with no advanced planning. They do little research and bet with their heart, not their heads, on their favorite teams or star quarterbacks. Often, their bets placed will be on televised games so they can have action on a game they're watching. That's why Monday Night Football games get so much betting interest. Millions of Squares are watching and looking for an opportunity to chase their losses after getting buried on Sunday. It reeks of desperation and is by all means the wrong way to wager—and the books love it.
52.4% versus 50% Bet Percentage
With most NFL point spreads, a 52.38% winning percentage is needed to turn a profit. A Square will struggle to hit 50%. The difference between 52.4% and 50% may not seem like much, but it is in the world of 11-to-10 odds. And it's serious business. It's the difference between a sports book turning a profit or going bust. Squares only think short-term: "I hope to win this game." Bookmakers, oddsmakers, and Sharps think long-term. The carefully calculated goal of a Sharp bettor is to hit above 52.4% over the course of a season or a year. It’s achievable with ample research, studying matchups and line movement, along with a sound money management betting strategy.
The Sharp's Routine In Sports Betting
A Sharp puts the work into analyzing games for a thorough understanding of the on-field matchups. A Square can only name the quarterbacks and a few star players. A Sharp can name offensive and defensive linemen, team strengths and weaknesses, stats such as third-down and red-zone efficiency, and how competent the offensive coordinator is. Sharps make their own betting numbers before the lines are posted so they're able to pounce on the best lines early. Sharps also have multiple sportsbook accounts to locate the best price and place much larger wagers than the average bettor. While a Square is happy to bet for fun and excitement, the Sharp is prepared, calculating, and only in it to win it.
Hook Reactions On Sportsbooks
Putting a half-a-point on a game is known as "the hook" by oddsmakers. The hook is interpreted differently by Squares and Sharps.
Many Squares won't care if an NFL line is -6.5, -7, or -7.5. They'll still bet on the team they like (usually the favorite). They pay little to no attention to line shopping. Other Squares get spooked by the hook. They like their team at -7, but a -7.5 makes them hesitant.
Sharps, on the other hand, see value and opportunity. The differences between key numbers are significant and always factor into their handicapping. They have accounts at different sports books for that very reason. If the Sharps are on the favorite, they'll shop to get it at -6.5, and if they like the dog, they’re going to hunt for a line of +7 or more. Sharps know their craft so well that they anticipate which direction opening numbers will likely move and then grab the superior value.
Do Sharps run the Books?
On the contrary. Yes, Sharps make their own numbers, but those aren't for public consumption. No one is putting money on the odds the Sharps are making. They're not oddsmakers, either. The goal of the oddsmaker is usually (with some exceptions) to get equal betting action on both sides and collect a +4.5% profit on every game. Setting odds requires a different skill set, one rooted in mathematics, a deep knowledge of each sport, and insight into what the general public thinks about a matchup.
Oddsmakers aren't trying to pick the winner or the final score. NFL Sharps are. Bookmakers learn to identify Sharp players, too. The books make their living off Squares but handle Sharps with caution, sometimes limiting wagers or even shutting them out. Sharps are the bookmakers' worst nightmare.
Calculated Bettors
NFL Sharps approach betting odds with a careful, calculated plan of action. They have in-depth knowledge of the NFL matchups on the field, and digest many statistical areas in which stats are likely to play a significant role in the outcome. They also gauge whether the betting numbers accurately reflect the likely outcome. This helps to identify value in the variance between their own odds and those of the books.
Being a calculated bettor requires years of study, betting discipline, and an even emotional keel. A loss can shake the confidence of the average bettor, forcing them to approach the next game differently, even desperately. Not so with NFL Sharps. They approach the next game with the same cool, calculated confidence regardless of how the previous bet turned out.
Formulaic NFL Betting
NFL Sharps have formulas or proven systems that they rely on. Systems are carefully mapped out, with years of data behind them. They can take the form of NFL double-digit underdogs, run defense versus rushing offense, QB ratings, situations, or even coaching factors. They can even combine multiple betting angles that the Sharp has honed with a winning track record. Others can include line variance based on power rankings. Successful NFL wise guys are patient and stick to wagering patterns. They don't glance at the odds and decide, "I've got a hunch this team is going to cover," as Squares do. Some formulas are tested, fail to produce, and are discarded. But after years of wagering (and winning), the Sharp will lean on the formulas that have turned a profit consistently over many years and have clear reasons behind them
NFL Wise Guy Bets
Recreational bettors are far easier to spot and categorize than Sharps. The Average Joe bettor focuses on TV games, favorites, parlays, and NFL games going OVER the total. The creation of Monday Night Football was one of the biggest boosts to the sports betting industry. Recreational bettors need to have action, and with Monday and Thursday night football the only game on TV, they feel they have to wager on it regardless if there's betting value. In addition, many average bettors who lost on Sunday get desperate for a win, and bet a lot more than they should to try and recoup losses on Monday. This foolish wagering with no attention paid to money management, makes it easy to spot a Square.
Sharp bettors (wise guys) on the other hand, look for the right numbers, not marquee TV matchups or games that might be exciting, high-scoring affairs. They also usually steer clear of parlays. The public may prefer favorites, but NFL wise guys aren't scared of underdogs. If the public pushes a high-profile double-digit favorite up from -10 to -13, a Sharp sees value rising in the big dog. The NFL talent level is more even compared to college football, so it's difficult to blow a team out, offering value with big underdogs.
Sharp Totals
The average bettor prefers sides, while Sharp money will often come in on totals. That's why NFL totals shift more than sides early in the week 1. The Sharps hit them early, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total. It's not just because the books are getting significantly more money on the total, but because they respect the opinion of Sharps far more than the betting public. The exception is NFL marquee TV games on Sunday, Monday, and Thursday nights. With only one TV game left on the card, some public money is going to come in on the total—usually the OVER. The sports books are quicker to adjust NFL totals when Sharp money is rolling in one way.
Buyback Public Betting Trends
The difference between Sharps and Squares is never more apparent than in buying back points. The Sharps make the first move by betting as soon as the NFL lines come out, around one week before the game is played or the playoff. They have the unique skill to recognize the weak oddsmakers' opening lines from the strong ones.
Let’s look at an example involving the Packers opening as a 2.5-point home favorite for the Sunday night game. A Sharp can put big early money on the favorite either because in his opinion, the line should be higher or he anticipates the public backing the home team for what is a featured TV game or a huge divisional showdown. The oddsmakers may be forced to adjust the line to -3 or -3.5, and later in the week. Once the betting public begins to pay attention and begins backing the home team, the book can move the line up to -4, -4.5, or even -5. Closer to kickoff, the Sharps come in on the visiting team at +5.
This is referred to as buying back points, though it's really buying back value.
The Packers are now overpriced so the Sharp has both the underdog at +5 and the favorite at -2.5. The Sharp is guaranteed to have at least one winner and could even win both bets if the Packers were to win by 3 or 4 points. Buying back and hoping for a “middle” (winning both bets) exemplifies everything that distinguishes the NFL Sharp bettor: discipline, experience, patience, identifying line value, and being in a position to win more with less risk.
While very few NFL bettors can achieve Sharp status, our goal should always be to improve and get closer to that and further away from being a square. Want sharp NFL picks delivered to your inbox each week in 2024? Be sure to sign up for my free NFL expert picks.
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