New York Jets vs San Francisco 49ers

A pair of talented defenses clash. New York was third in the NFL last season in yards allowed, 12th in points given up, 12th on third down (37.19%), and 11th in yards per rush allowed. The Jets have one of the NFL's best defensive fronts led by Quinnen Williams, who had a team-high 70 pressures in 2023. San Francisco was eighth in the league last year in yards allowed and third in points given up. The 49ers have All-Pros on defense in edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Talanoa Hufanga. The UNDER is 5-1 when the 49ers play in September, when defenses are often ahead of the offense, plus 9-1 UNDER in Week 1. And NFL prime-time games are 70-42-1 UNDER the total over the last two seasons. Take New York/San Francisco UNDER the total. 

The New York Jets offense looked horrible last week vs. Buffalo. Outside of a 69-yard TD by Jamison Crowder, there was not a lot to be hopeful about. San Francisco will be missing both CBs for this game, so there is some hope that Sam Darnold will have some success going up against a depleted 49ers secondary. San Francisco had defensive issues vs Arizona last week, and the offense did not look at all like last year. The Niners broke a 76-yard TD of their own to make the total numbers look better than they were. I think the Niners may go back to the ground game, but the Jets defended the run well a year ago, perhaps the best part of this team. I think this line is based on what San Francisco was last year, and a lot of injuries will keep them from achieving that level again for now. Make the play on the New York Jets.

Many pundits had the San Francisco 49ers gold plated into the Super Bowl after their first two weeks of the season. That may still be the case, but “the invincible ones” took it hard on the chin last week in Minnesota, getting out-played for 60 minutes in a 24-13 loss. The defense that was considered to be impenetrable has now allowed 22 points per game. And they are really in a bad spot here. This will be the third time in four weeks that San Francisco has had to head east for a game. They have logged more miles than any team in the league with stops in Minnesota, Green Bay, and now all the way across the country to New York. The Jets were supposed to be a a defensive team under Rex Ryan. The fact is that under Ryan this team is 35-21 to the OVER. And, they lost Darrelle Revis for the season to a torn ACL. This season the Jets’ defense is giving up 25 ppg through three contests. But is three games enough to judge? Well, the 25 per game is the exact same average amount of points they allowed in their last eight games a year ago. So we have 11 games to go on - this defense is average. It may not surprise you then to learn that the Jets’ are 26-12 to the OVER the past three seasons. Under Rex Ryan, they are 13-5 OVER vs. winning teams. Take the OVER here.