New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Combine the Buccaneers (-950) and the Packers (-395) into a 2-team parlay at -260 odds.

A showdown for first place in the NFC South. New Orleans is outscoring opponents by +34 points, the fourth-best differential in the NFC. They have a reliable veteran QB in Derek Carr (19 TDs, 8 INTs) for this big game and a defense that is ninth in points given up (19.8 per game) and fourth on third down (34.78%). The Saints are 30-14 ATS on the road after getting outrushed by 75+ yards in the last game, plus 38-22 ATS on the road after allowing 30+ points. New Orleans lost the first meeting to Tampa Bay in October, 26-9, but is 42-24 ATS on the road revenging a loss to an opponent, including 27-13 ATS revenging a loss of 14 or more points. Tampa Bay's defense is 24th in yards allowed while the ground attack on offense averages just 3.4 yards per rush, the worst in the league. And NFL home favorites with a winning percentage of 51% to 60% off an upset win as a home dog are 6-26 ATS against losing teams. Play New Orleans.

Tampa Bay won both meetings in 2022 and both went UNDER by an average of 10.8 points and five of the past six meetings have stayed UNDER. New Orleans was looking good with a 17-0 lead against Green Bay when Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury and then the Packers rallied for an 18-17 victory. Carr is week-to-week and Jameis Winston would replace him as he did last week when he was 10 of 16 for 101 yards and no interceptions. The Saints totaled only 77 rushing yards on 22 carries. The Buccaneers lost their first game of the season 25-11 to Philadelphia on Monday night, but they are still #11 in scoring defense allowing 19.7 points per game. Baker Mayfield had his worst game of the season completing 15 of 25 for 146 yards and an interception, but the Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS their past 10 games after accumulating fewer than 250 total yards their previous game. The Saints are 1-4 ATS their past five home games and 1-5-1 ATS overall, 6-0 UNDER versus the NFC South and 7-0 UNDER against all NFC opponents. New Orleans has gone UNDER nine consecutive games overall. Take the Buccaneers and the UNDER.

Tampa Bay is 9-2 UNDER this season, including its 23-17 loss to Cleveland that stayed UNDER even though it went into overtime. The Buccaneers haven't been able to get their offense going all year due to injuries to Tom Brady's receivers and a makeshift offensive line which also has suffered some injuries, including starting center Ryan Jensen, who has been out since training camp. Brady still has managed to throw for 3,051 yards with only two interceptions, but he has had some trouble against New Orleans recently, including going 18 of 34 for 190 yards in the first meeting this season and the Saints beat the Bucs 9-0 in the final meeting in 2021. Four of the past five meetings have stayed UNDER and the Saints offense looked horrible while losing 13-0 at San Francisco last week. New Orleans is 4-1 UNDER its past five games and Andy Dalton will face a defense that dominated the Saints in September by sacking Jameis Winston six times with three interceptions. The Saints are 11-3 UNDER their past 14 games after allowing fewer than 15 points their previous game and the UNDER is 11-3 the past 14 meetings at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 15-3 UNDER versus NFC teams dating to last season. Take the UNDER as a Max Play.