New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans

Head coaches Mike Vrabel and Bill Belichick know each other well having worked together in New England, and they're both outstanding defensive coaches. Tennessee is fifth defensively against the run, #10 on third down, and eighth in yards per rush allowed (4.1). The Titans offense is less balanced with star RB Derrick Henry out. The team is 15-5 UNDER the total on the road after outgaining an opponent by 150+ yards in their previous contest. New England is third defensively in yards allowed, No. 1 in points (16.1 per game), sixth on third down, and ninth in yards per rush allowed. The Patriots are 15-6 UNDER the total against quarterbacks with a completion percentage of 64% or better and 12-4 UNDER when the total is 42.5 to 49 points. Play this game to stay UNDER the total.

Tennessee doesn't have a lot of weapons for backup QB Ryan Tannehill, with an offense ranked #22 in passing, and#12 in rushing. This makes it easier for Bill Belichick and the Patriots to game plan, focusing on containing the run. New England's defense is stout upfront, allowing 95.5 yards rushing per game (sixth), while the strength of the defense is a suffocating and ball-hawking secondary. Tennessee is 9-4 UNDER the total in January games, while New England is 23-10 UNDER off a close loss by seven points or less to a division rival. The Patriots play their third straight home game after an embarrassing collapse against Miami on Sunday. Belichick will have them focused ahead and not looking backwards, as usual. One edge for the shaky Patriots' passing game is that Tennessee CB Adoree Jackson hasn't played since Week 13, while CB Malcolm Butler is on injured reserve. The Patriots are 37-14 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage between 51-60%, plus 80-48 ATS against teams that average 5.65+ yards per play. New England has covered five of the last six meetings, so back the home team in a defensive duel. Play the Patriots as a Max Play and also take the UNDER.

The defending champion New England has a ton of defensive depth again. They showcased it last week by holding the Lions to three points and 93 total yards. Detroit had just 21 yards passing and was 2-of-11 on third down. And there's no reason to risk the health of 42-year-old Tom Brady, so rookie QB Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer will get the most time. Tennessee's defense was much-improved under the new coaching staff in 2018, ranking eighth in yards allowed, third in points surrendered. Last week they held Philadelphia to 10 points and 227 total yards. The offense is a run-first attack, finishing #29 in the NFL in passing yards, #27 in points. Running the football chews up yards and the clock, keeping scoring opportunities down. In their last five preseason games, the Titans have averaged just 13.2 points per contest. Play this one to finish UNDER.

New England hasn't lost to the Titans since 2002. The Patriots are hitting their stride following their usual rough September. Meanwhile Tennessee had lost three in a row before beating Dallas on Monday night. The Titans average only 16.8 points per game and are third-to-last in the NFL in total offense yards. The Patriots have won six in a row and come off an impressive 31-17 win over Green Bay on Sunday night as Tom Brady went 22-of-35 for 294 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. The Patriots also had a solid running game with 123 yards on 31 carries and they redeemed themselves after a goal-line stand by Green Bay's defense by outscoring the Packers 14-0 in the fourth quarter. New England allows 22.4 points per game on the season, but it has held its last two opponents to a total of 23 points and both games went UNDER. The Titans have stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games overall and their last five games versus AFC opponents. Tennessee has gone UNDER in seven of its last 10 following an ATS win and five of its last seven against teams with winning records. Tennessee got a much-needed win over the Cowboys, but the Patriots will be a different story. Play the Patriots on the moneyline and also take the UNDER.