Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

These AFC East rivals have sputtering offenses. Miami has far more skill position talent on offense for backup QB Skylar Thompson. The defense is fifth in the NFL in yards allowed, 11th in yards rushing per attempt, and No. 1 on third down (23.81%). They're 3-1 UNDER the total, part of a 7-2 run UNDER. The Dolphins have won six of the last seven meetings against New England. The plodding Patriots' offense is last in yards and points (13 ppg) with QB Jacoby Brissett and RB Rhamondre Stevenson (4.1 yards per carry). They're last in passing and 24th on third down (32.76%). The defense is 24th in yards allowed, though seventh in yards rushing per attempt, on a 12-8 run UNDER the total. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in its last five games at home against the Dolphins. Play Miami + UNDER the total. 

New England finally broke through and got a win snapping a three-game skid when Mac Jones threw a 1-yard TD pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left to upset Buffalo 29-25. Jones threw for 272 yards and two TDs and Bill Belichick got his 300th win. Now the Patriots will be out to avenge a 24-17 loss to Miami on Sept. 17 and the Dolphins come off a 31-17 loss at Philadelphia while being outgained 355-244. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 216 yards and threw a costly interception near the goal line in the fourth quarter and returned 16 yards by Darius Slay and the game stayed UNDER. New England had gone UNDER five straight before Sunday's game and the Patriots are 26-10 UNDER their past 36 games playing on real grass. Miami has stayed UNDER 13 of 19 as a home favorite and eight of 11 at home overall. The Dolphins are 3-9-1 ATS their past 13 October games and New England's defense surprisingly is No. 9 in the league in total yards allowed. New England may have finally fixed its offensive woes and the anticipation of getting Belichick's 300th win is over. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 of 45 for 466 yards and the game still went down to the final two minutes as he threw a 4-yard pass to Tyreek Hill in the right corner of the end zone with 1:45 remaining to take the lead for good. The Dolphins yielded 433 total yards to the Chargers, including 234 on the ground. New England can take advantage of the Dolphin defense after Mac Jones recovered from a slow start and finished with 316 passing yards and three TDs although the Patriots came up short and lost 25-20 to Philadelphia. The good news for the Patriot defense is that it didn't allow the Eagles a touchdown after the first quarter. Tagovailoa faced the Patriots once last season and went 23-for-33 for 270 yards and a touchdown. New England is 6-2-1 ATS its past nine Week 2 games and it has covered five of seven as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 points. The Patriot defense held the Eagles to just 251 total net yards and have the edge in that department in this matchup. Play the Patriots as a Max Play.

The Miami Dolphins are the streakiest team in the NFL. Last year they had a losing streak and a winning streak of 7 games. This season a 3 and 5-game winning streak, and a 3 and 4-game losing streak. The streak now stands at 4 straight losses. The Dolphins will turn to Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Bridgewater has a lot of experience and will face a New England team that will likely be missing 3 starters in its secondary.  The Miami Dolphins have explosive receivers that give secondary quality fits. I think Miami even with Bridgewater is going to have a big offensive day and the New England offense doesn't have the ability to keep up. This game also fits a situation that is 47-14 ATS. Make the play on Miami.

The NFL season gets underway this week with the New England Patriots heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins. This is a rematch of last year's opener for both teams, a game won by Maimi. New England ended up at 10-7 and the most encouraging part was that they out-scored opponents by 9.4ppg. The big news in Maimi is acquiring Tyreke Hill. Hill put up 1,239 yards last year in Kansas City, but he should be blanketed by Devon McCourty who allowed just a 43.5% completion percentage against him. Tua Tagovialoa has not yet lived up to expectations as he threw for just 16 TD passes a year ago to 10 INT. The Pats have an opportunistic secondary and Tua has shown inconsistencies throughout his career, and it may take a while to define roles by a talented receiver group, and the bigger question is can Tua get the ball in the right place? New England lost both games a year ago to Miami, and that isn't going to sit well with Bill Belichick who will have the game plan edge in this one. Make the play on New England.