Los Angeles Chargers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

First-place Tampa Bay is fighting for a divisional title just one game ahead of the Falcons. QB Baker Mayfield (28 TDs, 13 INTs) leads a balanced offense that is third in the NFL in yards, eighth in rushing, and second on third down (47.17%). The ground attack averages 5.1 yards per carry, the fourth-best in the league. The Bucs have won three in a row and are 4-2 ATS on the road. That included a win at Detroit, 20-16, as a +7.5 underdog, the only loss the Lions have had. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost two of three, with the offense scoring just 17 points in each of the last two games. This is a difficult matchup for a Los Angeles run defense that ranks 22nd while allowing 4.58 yards per carry. The Buccaneers are on a 19-5 run in regular-season games played in December or January, the second-most wins in the NFL behind the Bills. Play Tampa Bay. 

The Chargers' defense has been impressive, keeping them in every game despite a losing record. Their games have been decided by 3, 3, and 5 points, with the defense eighth in yards allowed, ninth against the pass. They have a terrific pass rush which will be a big asset against a team with a 43-year old QB. The Chargers are 73-48 ATS as a road dog of 7 points or less, as well as 39-22 ATS away against teams that average 235+ yards passing. QB Justin Herbert has thrown for over 300 yards in two straight games throwing to Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen, leading an offense that is sixth in total yards. Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady has three picks through three games and the team is 11-26 ATS at home versus defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or better. The visitors are one of only three teams in the NFL in the Top 10 in offensive and defensive yards, so look for a close one. Play Los Angeles.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been on a roll offensively, having scored 144 points over their last four games or 36 points per game. Many will look at that and have them in mind when they make their selections this week, but I won't be one of them. While the numbers look impressive, history says it is an illusion and a bigger negative than a positive coming into this game. The Bucs are still at just 4-4 and a .500 team, and teams that are .500 or less that scored 130 or more points in their last four games are just 12-17-2 ATS in their next game. That includes 3-13-1 ATS as a favorite. The reality is that average teams don't keep up that kind of production forever. The Chargers are also 4-4 on the year. But, over their last 11 road games, they have actually out-scored their opponents by ten points. The Chargers should have an open season against the Bucs' secondary, which is allowing over eight yards per pass attempt. Phillip Rivers is good enough to exploit that weakness. The Chargers never seem to play well as a favorite, but Phillip Rivers is 15-10 ATS in his career as an underdog. And, this is Norv Turner time (he's 27-16 ATS at San Diego in the second half of the season). Take the Chargers here.