Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has revenge on its mind after getting blown out, 36-10, by Kansas City on Dec. 26 when Pat Mahomes was near perfect in completing 23 of 30 for 258 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The Steelers' defense has clamped down since then, allowing a total of only 27 points in its last two games against Cleveland and Baltimore while keeping the Ravens out of the end zone for the most part, even with Baltimore racking up 249 rushing yards last week. The Chiefs had to come from behind to beat Denver and needed an 86-yard fumble return by linebacker Nick Bolton to help their cause. The week before, the Chiefs lost at Cincinnati, and they haven't covered their last two games. Pittsburgh is 16-6-3 ATS in its past 25 January games and 35-14-2 ATS as an underdog. And giving Ben Roethlisberger this many points in a big game seems like a gift. Kansas City is 5-12 ATS following an ATS loss and 1-4 ATS in its last five January games. The UNDER is 38-15-1 in the Steelers' past 54 road games, and they are 9-4-1 UNDER after a win. The Chiefs have also stayed UNDER in four of their last five Wild Card games. Play the Steelers for a Max Play, and also back the UNDER for a Max Play.

These are two AFC teams with winning records and playoff hopes, so expect the defenses to bring their A-games. This is a lot of points for a winning team to get. Pittsburgh comes off of a 19-13 win over Tennessee as the defense improved to 13th on third down. On grass fields this year, the Steelers are allowing a very respectable 20.1 points per game. The Steelers are on a 37-14-1 run UNDER the total on the road (10-4 UNDER in December). Kansas City's defense was terrible early on, but personnel changes and the trade for Pittsburgh DE Melvin Ingram has this unit playing great. In the first five games, the Chiefs allowed 32.6 points per game, but since then they've allowed just 12.8 points per contest (6-3 UNDER the total). Adding Ingram allows Chris Jones to play exclusively inside while LB Willie Gay, Jr. and CB Charvarius Ward have returned from early-season injuries. For this week, Kansas City has 13 players in COVID-19 protocols, including 1,000-yard receivers TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill. Pittsburgh plays well in the underdog role under Mike Tomlin, having gone 41-25 ATS when getting points. Tomlin's Steelers are also 36-24 ATS vs. good teams (.600 to .750). The UNDER has cashed six of the last eight meetings between these teams. Play the Steelers and the UNDER.

This is a high NFL preseason total because of the marquee teams involved. Kansas City put up 38 points on the Bengals last week, but that was at home. You don't want to risk an opportunity of injury to star QB Patrick Mahomes against "Blitzburgh," and beyond him the Chiefs have a weak rotation with QBs Kyle Shurmur, Chad Henne and Chase Litton. The real story this preseason for Kansas City is a revamped defense under new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and they held the Bengals to 21 yards rushing on 12 carries while picking off two passes. The defense has a lot to prove and faces a Pittsburgh squad that won't play QB Ben Roethlisberger much. The backups are unimpressive in Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs and rookie Devlin Hodges. The Steelers are also dealing with a huge tragedy as receivers coach Darryl Drake died Sunday. In their last two Week 2 preseason home games, the final scores were 17-0 and 17-13, and this shapes up as another defensive duel. Play the UNDER.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were just plain lucky to get out of Cleveland with a tie last week. They were guilty of six turnovers, five of which came out of Big Ben. They looked like a puzzled team, despite having some success on the ground. There is some concern here as Big Ben's 43 INTs over the last three years is his highest three consecutive year total since early in his career, and at age 36 there may be a drop off occurring. Pat Mahomes instantly learned who to get the ball to, and it is the electric Tyreek Hill. Mahomes completed 15 passes, seven of which were caught by Hill, and he generated 24.1 yards per carry, and two TDs. He is a huge weapon, and it seems like he already has a connection to Hill. Hill's performance didn't end there, as he brought back a punt for 91 yards, and yet another TD. The Chiefs have more non-offensive TDs than any team since 2013, finishing first two times, and third another. Mistakes could kill Pittsburgh in this one, so make the play on Kansas City.