Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

The New Jersey weather looks like a problem for both offenses, 40 degrees at kickoff, high winds, with chances of rain over 80 percent. Warm-weather Jacksonville has mostly avoided rough weather this season. In Week 4, they played a game in wet, windy conditions against the Eagles and scored 21 points as QB Trevor Lawrence fumbled four times and threw a pick. The Jaguars are 12-3 UNDER the total after scoring 30+ points in two straight games. New York QB Mike White is still out, so the Jets go back to QB Zach Wilson (6 TDs, 6 INTs, 54.9% completions). The Jets' defense is the strength of the team, third in the NFL in total yards allowed, fourth versus the pass, 11th against the run, eighth in the red zone, and fourth in points surrendered (18.8 pg). New York is 72-48 UNDER the total in the last four weeks of the regular season, including 79-52 UNDER in December games. Take Jacksonville/New York UNDER the total as a Max Play. 

As bad as a season as Jacksonville has had, the Jets have arguably been worse. New York has been outscored by 178 points, the worst differential in the NFL. The bumbling Jets haven't been in the role of favorite all season until now. How will they respond? Their quarterbacks have been sacked 42 times while combining for 17 TDs and 20 picks. The offense will be without its top two receivers in WR Elijah Moore and Corey Davis, while third-leading WR and top pass catcher Jamison Crowder might not play with a calf injury. Also, the defense is last in the NFL in yards allowed and points surrendered (30.6 per game). New York is 25-42 ATS against teams that run for 4.5 yards per carry and 1-10 ATS at home versus opponents that get outscored by 10+ points per contest. Jacksonville averages 4.6 yards per rush, which takes some of the heat off of rookie QB Trevor Lawrence (28 sacks). The Jaguars get tight end, Dan Arnold, back for this one, who was out the last month. He was a key target for Lawrence before his injury, and the Jaguars are 8-3 ATS against the Jets. While these teams give up a lot of points, the offenses average a combined 31.9 points per game. When facing poor pass defenses (61%+ opponent pass completion rate) this season, the Jags are 8-2 to the UNDER. Overall, Jacksonville is 11-3 to the UNDER this season, including 11-1 as a dog. Go with the Jaguars and the UNDER.

The N.Y. Jets took it on the chin last week to the best team in the AFC, losing 33-0 to the defending champs. Young QB Sam Darnold was awful, but he's not as bad as Bill Belichick's schemes made him look. The previous week he helped engineer the impressive upset of the Cowboys, 24-22. The Jets are on a 5-1 run OVER the total against losing teams. In addition, NFL favorites like Jacksonville of 3.5 to 10 points that average 370+ yards per game are 56-100 ATS when facing a defense that allows 335 to 370 yards per contest. Jacksonville has a Top 10 offense in yards (378.4 pg), but the defense is no longer elite ranked #18 in yards allowed, #17 in passing yards. The Jaguars have a losing record and just traded their best cornerback, so look for a close one in a high scoring tilt. Play the NY Jets and OVER.

The Jacksonville Jaguars came very close to getting to the Super Bowl last season, and are hopeful of getting another opportunity this year. Much maligned QB Blake Bortles has pedestrian numbers over his career, including last year, and the numbers this year look the same. The Jaguars just want him to manage the game and let the defense take care of things. The problem is just one of their last eight games has resulted in a win of greater than seven points, so while the Jags have been winning, the margin is not as wide as an elite team, and I think the back door is open here for the Jets. If Sam Darnold can have a game without too many errors and make a few big plays the front door might be open too. The Jets have been strong on defense, allowing under 20 points per game, so they certainly have a good shot to stay within reach here. Take the points on New York.