Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets

New York has had a brutal schedule, losing to the Bills and last year's NFC champ, the 49ers. They've covered four of their last five as a dog and NFL favorites like the Colts are 32-69 ATS off a home win in September games. The Jets have talent all over the defense and will get much better. DC Gregg Williams is very good at adjustments and likes to bring the blitz, which will help rattle Colts QB Philip Rivers, who already has more picks (3) than TDs (2). The Colts are a huge favorite but are no NFL powerhouse, splitting their first two games. They are outscoring opponents 24-19 on the young season. NFL home favorites that had a losing record the previous season are 93-155 ATS in conference games. The Jets are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings and match up well, so back the big dog in a competitive game. Play New York.

The last meeting between these two teams was in 2016 when Indianapolis routed the Jets 41-10 and now the Colts look to rebound from their Thursday night loss at New England with three extra days to prepare for this one. New York snapped a three-game losing streak with a 34-16 win over Denver and both the Colts and Jets have gone OVER their last two games. The Jets are 0-5 ATS their last five games after scoring at least 30 points their previous game while the Colts are 35-17 ATS their last 52 games when following a loss, dating to several seasons. Also, Indy has covered the spread 30 of its last 42 versus teams with losing records. New York rookie quarterback Sam Darnold was only 10-of-22 for 198 yards, but it included three TD passes against the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the Jets' secondary to the tune of 377 yards and two TDs, but the Broncos went just 1-for-4 in the red zone. Isaiah Crowell ran wild over the Denver defense with 219 rushing yards on only 15 carries for an incredible 14.6 yards per rush. Andrew Luck threw 59 times and completed 38 for 365 yards and three TDs against the Patriots. Indianapolis has gone OVER five of its last six October games and the Jets are 5-2-1 OVER their last eight October games. Also, the Jets have gone OVER five of their last seven home contests. Play the Colts and the OVER.

The Jets had a huge showdown last week with rival New England....and flopped at home again, blowing a late lead in a 22-17 defeat. New York is 1-4 at home in a lost and disappointing season after winning 10 games a year ago. The Jets have lost three in a row to fall to the basement of the AFC East. New York has failed to force a turnover in the last three games and has an NFL fourth-worst, nine takeaways. The Jets are 5-14-2 ATS after getting 250+ yards passing in their previous game. They face an Indianapolis Colts squad that is highly motivated, a half-game behind division-leading Houston and Tennessee (both 6-6). In addition, star QB Andrew Luck (19 TDs, 8 INTs) returns. Indianapolis has great balance and talent on offense with WRs T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief, along with veteran RB Frank Gore. The Colts are 23-7 ATS against a team with a losing record, plus 25-9 ATS following a straight up loss. They are also 9-2 ATS away against a team with a losing home record, so grab the motivated visitors with the superior quarterback. Play the Colts.