Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis has been eliminated from playoff contention, having lost six of its past nine games, including a shocking 45-33 defeat at the hands of the hapless New York Giants last week. It ended a 10-game skid for New York, who got 309 passing yards and four TDs from Drew Lock. The Colts are 1-5 ATS after totaling more than 350 yards in their previous game and 1-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5-10.0 points. Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its past five January games. Jacksonville has won five of six meetings, including 37-34 on Oct. 6. The Jaguars have lost many close games this season, but they did pull off a 20-13 victory over Tennessee on Sunday. Mac Jones finished 15 of 22 for 174 yards and two TDs with no picks. Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 meetings with the Colts, who are disappointed after missing the postseason, while the Jags would like to end on a winning note, and they're getting points. Take the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is searching for its first win and it likely won't get it this week against Indianapolis, which is coming off two impressive wins over Chicago and Pittsburgh after losing close games in its first two games. Joe Flacco did an imitation of what he did last year with Cleveland as he relieved injured starter Anthony Richardson and tossed two TD passes and the Colts beat the Steelers 27-24. Michael Pittman Jr. had six catches for 113 yards for the Colts, who are 17-4 ATS their past 21 games in Week 5. The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in Week 5 and 1-6 ATS and 7-0 UNDER their past seven games as home favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. Jacksonville is 10-1 UNDER as a favorite overall  of 0.5-3.0 points. The Jaguars lost 24-20 to Houston even though the Texans had 12 penalties called against them. Jacksonville led for most of the second half before succumbing to another loss and its third UNDER in four games. Indianapolis is in double revenge after losing both meetings last season and the Jaguars have lost eight straight against AFC opponents. Take the Colts and the UNDER.

Jacksonville is getting progress from QB Trevor Lawrence, but he still has a long way to go. What he has done is cut down on his turnovers. Last year Lawrence threw 13 INTs and so far this year only two. The Jags are still not scoring a lot by the air as Lawrence has just five TD passes on the season. What all these numbers have led to is Jacksonville playing under in 25 of Lawrence's first 41 NFL starts. Indianapolis might be content to run the ball as they have generated 125 or more rushing yards in each of their last four games. This should be a tight game and whoever wins the ground war is going to emerge a healthy 4-2 from this game. I like the UNDER.

Indianapolis will have a new starting quarterback for the eighth straight year in Week 1, but the Colts think they have hit pay dirt with Anthony Richardson, the heralded rookie from Florida who looked sharp in responding to adversity in preseason. The Colts have a new coach in Shane Steichen, who is a former quarterback at UNLV and was the offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles and he appears to be the perfect mentor for Richardson. Star running back Jonathan Taylor is still on the PUP list and the Colts plan to use a "running back by committee" if he doesn't play and that includes Deon Jackson and Evan Hull. Doug Pederson took Jacksonville from worst to first as the Jaguars went from 3-13 to 9-8 and won the division. However, things could even out this season although Trevor Lawrence made a big improvement and appears to be the real deal. The Colts' defense allowed 25.1 points per game last season, but one has to consider that the offense turned the ball over a league-high 34 times and it figures to improve in that department this year. Richardson is fortunate to have his NFL debut at home in front of a supportive crowd. Take the points with the Colts as a Max Play.

Indianapolis pulled out a 12-9 overtime win over Denver in one of the ugliest games of the season last Thursday night and Matt Ryan threw two intercepions and had no TD passes and he was sacked six times and hit 12 times by the Broncos defense. Ryan also has 11 fumbles this season behind a weak offensive line. The Colts are #24 in total yards and dead last in scoring with just 13.8 points per game. Defensively, the teams are about equal with the Colts #8 in yards allowed and Jacksonville #9 and the Jaguars allow only 16.0 points per game. Trevor Lawrence threw for 286 yards against Houston on Sunday, but was picked off twice. Still, Lawrence is having a beter season than Ryan with 1,232 passing yards and eight TDs. The Jaguars have covered the past six meetings, including 24-0 in Week Two this season and they have covered five of seven overall after allowing 15 or fewer points their previous game. The Colts are 2-6 ATS following an ATS win and just 2-5 ATS overall dating to last season. Take the Jaguars ATS as a Max Play.