Houston Texans vs New York Jets

Houston and rookie C.J. Stroud are having a great season, but the Texans are just 2-4 ATS their past six games and are laying points on the road this week after barely escaping with a 22-17 win against Denver. Jimmie Ward intercepted Russell Wilson in the end zone with nine seconds left to secure the victory for Houston. New York wasted a good defensive effort by losing 13-8 to Atlanta. The Jets were plagued by three turnovers and eight first-half penalties and still had a chance to win the game. Zach Wilson appears to be the starting quarterback again after Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian were ineffective against the Falcons. Houston is 1-4-2 ATS as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS overall as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The posted total is very low and Houston averages 23.4 points and allows 20.8 and New York allows 20.9 points per game. Take the Jets as a Max Play and the OVER.

Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped in a 24-21 loss to Indianapolis. Fortunately for the Texans, this week they get the New York Jets, who broke a six-game losing streak by beating the hapless Buffalo Bills 27-23 by outscoring them 14-3 in the fourth quarter. However, the Jets are 0-4 ATS their last four against teams with winning records and 2-5 ATS their last seven games overall and are 1-4 ATS when following a win. Houston has covered five of its last seven overall and five of six versus the AFC. The Texans are #12 in the league in total offensive yards compared to #26 for New York and Houston is #13 in yards allowed compared to #23 for the Jets. The Texans are allowing only 88.2 rushing yards per game and gave up just 2.2 yards per carry against the Colts. Houston QB Deshaun Watson has thrown only two interceptions his last seven games, which is a major improvement from his first six games. Watson went 27-of-38 for 267 yards with no interceptions against Indianapolis, but he needs to get rid of the ball quicker as he was sacked five times. The Texans have gone UNDER in back-to-back games and under Bill O'Brien, this team is 14-5 to the OVER in that situation. The Jets have overperformed expectations, going 7-3 to the OVER in thier last ten games. This total is too low. Go with the Texans and the OVER.

When the season ends, the Houston Texans may look back on last Monday's huge upset win vs. Cincinnati as the turning point of their season. The Texans were looking down the barrel of 3-6 as they played an 8-0 Bengal's team on the road, but came up with a huge effort and win and that has them tied for first in the AFC South. Indy will be without Andrew Luck this week, so the Texans are poised to capitalize. The Titans host the struggling NY Jets, who have now dropped three of their last four. The Jets defense allowed fewer than 14 points per game through four games, but have since fallen apart. Their last five opponents have all scored 20+ against them, and they simply don't have enough offense to win games when the defense is not elite. Houston has won three out of four in large part because they have turned their turnover situation positive, taking care of the ball and coughing it up just two times in the last four games while taking it away from their opponent nine times. The Texans have stepped up at home vs. good teams, as they are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning road record on the season. Take Houston in this one.