Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles suffered a 38-10 loss to Jacksonville as Justin Herbert played through a fractured rib cartilage, but the Chargers will be better prepared this week with more knowledge of how to handle the situation and Herbert has been upgraded to a full participant in practice. Fortunately. the Chargers get the Texans this week and they are allowing 410 total offense yards while their offense is fourth-worst in the league with 287.3 yards per game. Davis Mills went 20-for-32 for 245 yards with two interceptions in Houston's 23-20 loss to Chicago while the Bears ran roughshod over the Texans defense and totaled 281 rushing yards. Houston is 0-4-1 straight up dating to last season and it is averaging just 16.3 points this year. The Chargers are in revenge after losing a key game to Houston in late December and they are 11-3 ATS after a double-digit home loss. The Texans are 3-8 ATS their past 11 October games and 7-3 UNDER its last 10 games versus the AFC. Los Angeles has stayed UNDER eight of its past 10 after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and it can use a lot of clock running on Houston's weak run defense. Take the Chargers and the UNDER.

This is the first time all season Los Angeles has been a double-digit favorite, and the defense is not elite. They are 21st in yards allowed, fourth-worst versus the run (136.8 yards rushing per game allowed), 26th in points surrendered, and dead last on third-down (49.7%). They come off a tough loss in a big game, losing in OT to rival Kansas City, 34-28. The Chargers will be without three defensive starters, including star pass-rusher Joey Bosa. They're 36-55 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Houston plays its fourth home game in the last five contests and comes off of a 30-16 win at Jacksonville. QB David Mills is getting more comfortable, and speedy WR Brandin Cooks had 102 yards and seven receptions last week, so back the big home dog. Play Houston.

The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to make a lot of noise in the AFC this season but have not looked the part through two games. They managed just 10 points on 424 total yards in a loss to Detroit last week, and barely got by the Colts without Andrew Luck. QB Phillip Rivers is off a big year, but he looks very frustrated right now. Over the years, Rivers seems to play better on the road, and in his last 40 home starts the Chargers are just 15-25 ATS. Houston is also 1-1 on the season and their QB, Deshaun Watson has earned a pedigree in his young career by winning on the road. Watson is 7-2 ATS on the road while leading his team to 29.2 points per game in the process, and that goes to 6-1 ATS as a road dog. Houston is a 58-yard FG make as time ran out vs. New Orleans from coming in 2-0 and have looked like the better team at this point. Back Houston. Also take the OVER. The Texans have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and Deshaun Watson is fifth in the leage in QBR behind only the likes of Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Meanwhile the Chargers are getting 5.7 per run as well as 8.5 yards per pass. LA has also amassed 859 yards in two games. Back the dog and the OVER in this one.

San Diego may be in last place, but they are in the toughest division in football this season. San Diego has outscored opponents by 14 points, despite a losing record, and dropping a string of super close games. Chargers QB Philip Rivers (20 TDs, 11 INTs) is having a great season, leading an offense ranked ninth in yards, fifth in passing, and second in points (29.2 per game). Getting hard hitting safety Jahleel Addae back (out since Week 2), along with inside linebacker Denzel Perryman, will help the defense. The Chargers are on a 10-4 ATS run, including 9-2 ATS on the road. They face a Houston team limping home from Mexico after a Monday Night loss to Oakland. Houston may be in first place, but it's a bad division. The Texans have a winning record, yet have been outscored by 34 points this season! The problem is an anemic offense ranked #28 in yards and points (18.1 per game) and #30 in passing. QB Brock Osweiler (12 TDs, 10 picks) has been a terrible and overpriced addition, throwing everything underneath with erratic accuracy downfield. Houston is 7-2 UNDER the total at home with a strong defense and fifth in yards allowed. With the Chargers covering all five of the last five meetings, grab the dog with the far better quarterback in a defensive duel. Play San Diego and UNDER the total.