Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota gave a blueprint on how to defend C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans as he was sacked five times and threw his first interception in 10 starts. The Texans were held to 296 yards of offense and lost 34-7 to the Vikings, who totaled only 274 net yards themselves and the game went UNDER by 5.5 points. Houston is averaging just 18.3 points this season, including a 19-13 win over Chicago that stayed UNDER by 13.5 points. Jacksonville is seeking its first win after losing two close games to Miami and Cleveland before running into a buzz saw at Buffalo and losing 47-10. The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS their past five games after allowing more than 35 points against a non-division conference team. Jacksonville is 11-1 UNDER as a division road dog of more than three points and the posted total is more than 43. The Texans are 1-4-1 ATS their past six September games and eight of the past 12 meetings with the Jaguars have gone UNDER. Take the Jaguars and the UNDER.

Houston QB C.J. Stroud is a game manager who has 2 TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. And the Houston defense is 11th in the NFL in total yards allowed and 11th against the pass. Jacksonville struggled at home last week against a good defense, losing 17-9 to the Chiefs. The offense is 21st in total yards and dead last on third down (25%), while the defense is 18th in yards given up, including 24th against the pass. The Jaguars are 36-55 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in the last game, plus 22-38 ATS after back-to-back games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. With NFL home favorites 34-83 ATS after a defeat in the first half of the season, back the big dog in this division rivalry. Play Houston as a Max Play.

Jacksonville has won three in a row, which means this game is not a must-win. The Jaguars will play for the AFC South title and a playoff spot next week at home against Tennessee, both tied for first place with 7-8 records. Jacksonville has a losing road mark and this is its fourth road game in six weeks. That included duds at Kansas City (a 27-17 loss) and at Detroit (40-14 defeat). The Jaguars have been favored three times this season...and lost all three straight up! In those three games as chalk, Jacksonville's offense averaged just 13.3 points. The Jaguars are 11-26 ATS on the road after a double-digit win, plus 28-46 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 100+ total yards in the last game. Houston keeps playing hard for this coaching staff, off of a 19-14 win at Tennessee as an underdog. In the previous two weeks, they lost at Dallas, 27-23, as a 17-point dog and to the Chiefs, 30-24, as a +14 dog. The Texans have won nine straight over the Jaguars, including a 13-6 win at Jacksonville in Week 5. Play Houston.

Jacksonville came off a win against the Chargers when Justin Herbert wasn't nearly 100 percent healthy and then the Jaguars blew a 14-point lead in the rain and lost 29-21 at Philadlephia. Trevor Lawrence threw for 174 yards and two touchdowns, but he also lost four fumbles and finished 11 of 23 with an interception. Houston is looking for its first win, but the Texans are 2-1-1 ATS and their largest margin of defeat was last week losing 34-24 to the Chargers. Davis Mills threw for 246 yards and two TDs with two picks and Dameon Pierce had a big day for Houston rushing for 131 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries. The Texans won and covered both meetings in 2021 and they are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings at Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 2-8 ATS following a loss and 5-17 ATS their past 22 October games. The Jags are 3-9 ATS their past 12 games overall and they are only #20 in the league offensively in total yards gained. Take the Texans as a Max Play.