Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan likes a balanced offense, and he has one that was seventh during the regular season in total yards and seventh in rushing with QB Jimmy Garoppolo (20 TDs, 12 INTs) and RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards, 4.7 yards per carry). They keep defenses guessing, winning at Dallas last week with 169 yards rushing. The 49ers are 9-4 OVER the total after a spread cover and 13-5 OVER against rush defenses that allow over 4.5 yards per carry. The Green Bay defense was No. 31 in the league in yards per rush allowed (4.7), only the Steelers were worse. Rested Green Bay is No. 10 in scoring (26.5 points per game) and ninth on third down (43.56%) after another brilliant campaign by QB Aaron Rodgers (37 TDs, four INTs). The Packers averaged 30.8 points at Lambeau Field and are on a 6-1 run OVER the total. Green Bay is 26-13 OVER the total after allowing 35+ points in their last game (28-14 OVER in playoff games). The OVER has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these teams, including Week 3, a 30-28 Green Bay win. Go with the OVER for a Max Play.

Green Bay couldn't contain Dalvin Cook and lost to the Vikings on Sunday, but the Packers have bounced back after every loss in the Matt Lafleur era, having not lost two in a row this year and last. Aaron Rodgers went 27 of 41 for 291 yards with no interceptions, and the Packers ran for 109 yards on 4.5 per carry, but Cook returned from injury and totaled four touchdowns. San Francisco lost to Seattle 37-27, and lost Jimmy Garoppolo to injury again after he completed 11 of 16 for 84 yards with an interception. Garoppolo was knocked out with an ankle injury early in the fourth quarter and Nick Mullens replaced him. Mullens finished 18 of 25 for 238 yards, but the 49ers did not have much of a running game with only 52 yards on 2.4 per carry. Mullens will get the start this week as the Niners continue to deal with several key injuries, including tight end George Kittle, who has a foot injury. San Francisco had just about everything go right for it in 2019, and now things are evening out after overachieving last season. Green Bay is #9 in total yards of offense while averaging 31.3 points, and this is a rematch of last season's NFC championship game when Raheem Mostert ran for four TDs and 220 yards, but he's injured now and the Niners have Jerick McKinnon and rookie JaMycal Hasty to count on for their running game. Play the Packers on the money line.

Green Bay has impressed in all phases of the game under first-year coach Matt LaFleur. They are on an 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS run and are 7-1 ATS against winning teams. One of those losses was a blowout defeat at San Francisco, but the Packers have won six straight games since that defeat and are better. The Packers will have offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga back from an injury that caused him to miss most of that meeting. Green Bay has excellent balance on offense and the best quarterback on the field in Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 4 INTs in the regular season + playoffs). Rodgers is 76-49 ATS against winning teams in the second half of the NFL season. The weather will be great in the Bay Area this weekend and the Packers are 15-7 OVER the total after getting 250+ yards passing in their previous game. San Francisco's defense finished #17 against the run and Green Bay has a strong one-two backfield punch in Aaron Jones (1,084 yards) and Jamaal Williams (460). Young San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo is playing in his first NFC title game and had 28 TDs, 14 picks counting the regular season and the playoffs this year, along with 38 sacks. Green Bay has been an underdog four times this season and won three of those, 10-3, 34-24 and 23-10. The OVER is also 7-3 when these teams clash, so back the visitors to cover and even win a high-scoring duel. Take Green Bay ATS, as well as on the moneyline and also take the game to finish OVER.