Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense has been better than the offense, ranked 14th in yards allowed, 13th in the red zone, and eighth on third down (34.9%). Meanwhile, the offense is just 26th in the league in scoring (18.4 ppg). In five road games this season, the Packers have averaged 13.6 points, going 4-1 to the UNDER. The Eagles' offense can go ball-control behind mobile QB Jalen Hurts (440 rushing yards) and they can exploit a Green Bay run defense that is in the bottom 10, plus 21st in yards rushing per carry allowed. But, can the Eagles win by a touchdown here? The Pack defense is allowing just 21 poionts per game and Philly's offense has slowed of late. The Eagles have scored 21 or less in three of their last six games. Under Matt LaFleur, the Pack are 12-4 ATS as an underdog and also 12-4 ATS following a loss. Take Green Bay plus the points and the UNDER.

Philadelphia is well-coached, and the defense is playing great allowing 21, 9, 27, 22, and 23 points in five straight games. Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz is back after missing the past five games with an ankle injury. They have been an underdog this big two other times this season and won at San Francisco, 25-20, and lost to Baltimore, 30-28, as a +10 dog. Green Bay's defense has allowed 34 and 25 points the last two games and is getting overvalued by oddsmakers, failing to cover four of their last seven, including a 1-2 ATS run at home. The road team has covered five of six when these teams clash, and this shapes up as a close one. Play Philadelphia.

Matt LaFleur is making a good first impression in his first year as coach of the Packers, who are 3-0 straight-up and ATS and are so far successfully navigating a new offense. Aaron Rodgers threw for 235 yards and a touchdown and Aaron Jones ran for two scores as Green Bay beat the Broncos 27-16 on Sunday. The Packers are second only to the Patriots in points allowed with 11.7 per game and they are fifth in pass defense. Philadelphia was dealing with so many injuries last week that they went through walkthroughs part of the week instead of regular practice to avoid further injuries and a lack of players. The Eagles then went out and lost to the underdog Lions and now they have to play on a short week on the road. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS its last six September games and 1-8-1 ATS in Week 4 the last 10 years. Green Bay has been looking good in every phase, including the offensive line, which is giving Rodgers time and keeping him protected for the most part. Lay the points with the Packers. Also take the OVER. The Eagles are averaging 25.3 points per game while Green Bay is averaging 24.0 per game at home. And, Philly is allowing 26 points per game. Both of these teams are going to score. The Eagles are 61-37 to the OVER on the road vs. good passing teams like Green Bay (teams at 61%+ completion rate). And, Green Bay is also 93-61 OVER vs. losing teams and 67-38 OVER vs. poor defensive teams, teams like Philadelphia that allow 350+ yards per game. Back the home favorite and the OVER in this one, taking the OVER as a Max Play.