December dawns on the NFL in Week 13. For bettors, this brings in two important facets for handicapping totals. One is that by this point in the season, barring significant injuries, offenses should be clicking at their most optimum level. Quarterbacks spend September getting in sync with receiving targets while adjusting to roster newcomers.
By October, coaches are tinkering with changes to personnel, benching or cutting unproductive running backs who are missing blocking assignments, players who fumble too much, and wide receivers who drop too many passes. By November and early December, the coach has decided on the best players for each position while QBs have had many weeks of practices and games to have the offense playing at a high level. Oddsmakers by now recognize the best offensive teams and have inched up totals accordingly. If you haven't already these are things you need to be thinking about when making NFL football picks for week 13.
Here are some recent Week 13 NFL scores in consecutive years: 29-27, 41-22, 30-23, 34-30, 41-35, 38-28, 31-28, 34-24, and 34-17. Before you think of playing games OVER the total, however, there's one other factor to keep in mind: wind. Late November and December games can have nasty weather conditions.
The cold isn't much of a factor, but windy conditions can be in outdoor NFL stadiums like Chicago, New England, New York, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay. So Week 13 can be a "totals war" between oddsmakers, the wind, and bettors.
Try my week 13 NFL computer picks or take a look where NFL public is betting by checking out my NFL consensus picks.
Why Use NFL Week 13 Picks
To get a leg up on the oddsmakers it's necessary to gather layers of information each week, such as injuries, matchups, situations, line movement, and now weather conditions.
The average bettor does the best they can accumulating data, but professional bettors spend far more hours doing that as it's their livelihood. Seeking out free picks or having them sent to you increases the amount of relevant info and prime selections needed to turn a profit.
Betting Value in NFL Week 13 Picks
Some veteran quarterbacks have played so many games in cold or windy conditions that they're used to it. Others play their home games in warm climates, such as Miami, Jacksonville, and Los Angeles, or indoor stadiums like Arizona, Indianapolis, Detroit, New Orleans, and Atlanta.
When those QBs head to Chicago or New England in Week 13 they're confronted with two tough obstacles: the opposing defense and frigid weather conditions. That opens up wagering value, such as games UNDER the NFL total or team props like "the Lions to score UNDER 23.5 points", or player props like "Chicago QB to throw UNDER 2 TDs".
Wunderdog NFL Week 13 Picks
I keep tabs on all the matchups along with decades of experience and an extensive database calculating how teams perform on the road, against division rivals, on natural grass versus turf, and betting trends. This helps me narrow down the weakest lines and best bets. And I invite you to team with me to cash in at the wagering window with all my NFL picks.
Free NFL Week 13 Picks vs. Premium Picks
Free NFL Week 13 Picks Pros:
- Free picks mean you never open your wallet
- Insight into how nasty conditions could negatively influence certain players and teams
- Activates your critical thinking to different wagering options
Free NFL Week 13 Pick Cons:
- Some websites boast only of their winners and hide the losers
- Providing no reasoning or just one angle on a pick, such as trends
- Too much information can overwhelm newcomers
Premium NFL Week 13 Pick Pros:
- The professional service gathers all the relevant data for you
- Identifies the best value in wagering options beyond sides, such as NFL moneylines, props, totals
- Top releases should have a higher winning percentage and cash more times over the long haul
Premium NFL Week 13 Pick Cons:
- Have clear judgment and control as gambling addictions are destructive
- Forcing releases on every game. The best value is on a handful of prime selections
- Failing to provide proper guidance on the money management necessary to turn a profit
How To Win With Free NFL Week 13 Picks
Winning in sports requires clear judgment, focus, accumulating and deciphering the right information, plus understanding odds and line movement. There is a multitude of factors that go into finding wagering value.
Assembling a collection of Free NFL Week 13 picks will help keep you up on weekly betting information while expanding your handicapping knowledge. Knowledge is not only power but an increased winning percentage.
Free NFL Week 13 Betting Strategy
Totals
Weather conditions add another layer to the sports handicapping regimen. NFL Week 13 will find some frigid and windy conditions in many cities. Teams that are good at running the football will lean on that with snow or windy gusts blanketing the field.
When home teams are leading by double-digits at the half, a second-half wager on the UNDER is one sports betting strategy. On a recent cold, gray, Week 13 December day, the Bengals beat the Jets at home, 22-6. That game not only sailed UNDER the total but there were only 5 second-half points scored.
The home team is inclined to run the pigskin to chew up yards and the clock, while the freezing visitors can often be less focused on playing hard and more interested in staying warm and getting the game over with.
Individual Team Props
Sports books offer many other odds than just sides and totals. Prop betting is available on TV games on individual players while team total points scored are available on other contests.
If a rookie or shaky QB is heading out on the road to play against a great defense or in hostile conditions, it can be worth a look to go UNDER their total passing yards or touchdowns. The Seahawks/Broncos Super Bowl was played outdoors at the Meadowlands Sports Complex in New Jersey. QB Peyton Manning won the 2013 regular season MVP award averaging 3.5 TDs on the road but was held to one TD pass as the team scored just 8 points against the great Seattle defense.
Don't underestimate defenses when analyzing props: of the eight highest-scoring teams in NFL history, none won a Super Bowl that season.
Playing Surfaces
The grass may look green at all the NFL stadiums but there are two different types of playing surfaces: artificial turf and natural grass. Some general managers purposely construct their teams around playing their home games indoors on turf, preferring to draft speed and athleticism over bulk.
Other coaches who play their home games indoors on natural grass prefer physicality, demanding a hard-hitting defense in the trenches. There are many times when speed-oriented passing teams that play indoors have to travel to grass stadiums creating slight disadvantages for their wide receivers and running backs.
That subtle difference can disrupt the timing and chemistry that the quarterbacks have developed with their targets. One week the high-flying Saints' offense went from a 16-11 loss outdoors at Tampa Bay on Bermuda grass to a 48-41 victory indoors against Arizona!
Free NFL Week 13 Picks Subscription
My plays are carefully analyzed from a database that has been compiling angles, stats, and wagering insight for over two decades. My NFL Week 13 picks also come with an important but far too often overlooked component of wagering: a sound money management investment strategy.
You need all of these elements to win consistently as the oddsmakers are not in business to give money away by guessing on lines. Signing up for my free picks via a subscription service gets your wagering week headed in the right direction...and ending it in the winner's circle!
Get free premium picks daily.