Making money betting the NFL is not about picking who will win the game. It's about who will cover the point spread. It's still not clear who invented football point spreads. The earliest records are from Minnesota during the 1930s and with illegal bookmakers in the Northeastern United States during the early 1940s. What is clear is that it had an enormous impact on football wagering and quickly gained popularity. You can still wager simply on who will win the game, or moneyline bets. A -300 home favorite on the moneyline means you could put down $300 to collect an extra $100 if the favorite wins. That's a large risk for a small reward - and the favorite doesn't always win. The point spread, though, is close to even money, offering all bettors a reasonable chance to collect 90% of their investment on one game. This puts a premium on money management, in-depth knowledge, and assessing spread movement.
Why Use Free NFL Picks Against the Spread
Point spreads are opinions - the opinion of oddsmakers on what roughly the final score is going to be. An NFL 7-point favorite is expected to win the game by a 27-20 final, for example. Many games end up falling around the point spread but many others don't. Just look at the history of the Super Bowl point spread and you'll find that most of the double-digit favorites didn't do very well. It's up to serious bettors to put the time into studying stats, matchups, situations, injury reports, and line movement to unearth small advantages. Getting insight from professionals who are also putting the effort in improves your chances of identifying even the tiniest edges on gameday when making your NFL picks.
Betting Value in Free NFL Picks Against the Spread
Point spreads don't usually stay the same from the opening number. When too much money comes in on the favorite or the NFL underdog, sports books are forced to adjust the number. One of the most famous examples was the 1979 Steelers/Cowboys Super Bowl. Pittsburgh went from a 3 to 4.5-point favorite with later money coming in on Dallas pushing the number back down. The Steelers won, 35-31, a major headache for the books who had to pay out Dallas winners at +4.5 and those who had wagered on the Steelers at -3.5. And those wagering edges aren't always with the favorite or the underdog. Smart bettors examine totals, NFL moneylines, and point spread props, along with weighing the value of correlated NFL parlays. There's value in numerous spread numbers, exploited daily by experienced eyes and calculated betting pros.
Wunderdog Free NFL Picks Against the Spread
With over two decades of knowledge carefully analyzing sports and odds, I recognize flawed numbers and winning spread situations. I have an in-depth computer database combined with situational factors such as road treks, coaching mismatches, and divisional matchups when handicapping. It takes careful study, experience, and patience, but anybody can learn to find the best odds on a consistent basis. If you're serious about upgrading your NFL football handicapping prowess, you can tap into that expertise with my free NFL spread selections.
Free NFL Picks Against the Spread vs. Premium Picks
Free NFL Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- NFL information that gets you prepped for the weekend
- No cost means no money lost
- Expands your handicapping critical thinking to props, parlays, and totals
Free NFL Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- Be cautious of services that skip over past losers and only tout big winners
- Forced picks when there are a limited number of games, or just one, on the board
- The reasons why need to be explained, such as matchup edges or situations
Premium NFL Picks Against the Spread Pros:
- Reliable services will be documented with graded releases
- They can possess top-notch information that is difficult to find elsewhere
- An experienced handicapper is on your side identifying the essential wagering edges
Premium NFL Picks Against the Spread Cons:
- Too many favorites
- Gambling addictions are destructive
- Bad beats happen. Don't let emotion shake your confidence or strategy
How To Win With Free NFL Picks Against the Spread
Winning while watching NFL football requires streamlining the most important information with respect to the point spread. A 10-point favorite will have a lot of edges in their favor, but will they win by 20, 11, or 7? That's the game within the game. Spreads can be inflated. Fans and casual bettors like to focus on what happened last week, while serious bettors are focused on looking forward. Don't let what happened last week taint your analysis of this weekend's game. In addition, posted point spreads may be very accurate with little value, but what about the offense odds posted such as props, totals, and team totals? A winning bettor approaches each contest with plenty of careful study and thought. Emotion runs through the veins of NFL fans, while discipline controls the brains of wagering winners.
Free NFL Picks Against the Spread Betting Strategy
Divisional Matchups
Some games mean more on the NFL schedule than others. When it comes to wins, coaches preach two things: defending home turf and divisional games. Even teams that start 6-6 are always in the hunt for the postseason if they have a good divisional record. Finishing 9-7 or even 8-8 can be enough to win a division title. Many NFL teams play better when facing a divisional opponent. Part of it is that the coaching staff may have put more effort into preparing game plans against division rivals or because players are more familiar with teams that they face twice a season. Divisional matchups can be a great equalizer, with divisional underdogs keeping games close all the way and even pulling upsets.
Injury Overreaction
NFL injuries have to be assessed very carefully as point spreads can move because of them. Quarterback is the most important position, so if a good quarterback is out, the line will reflect that, sometimes by 4-7 points. Point spreads will even shift if a quarterback is expected to play but got banged up in the last game. Fans and oddsmakers are thinking that one tackle could knock him out again. Lines can shift a point or two because of non-NFL quarterbacks, as well, such as an injured star running back, wide receiver, or linebacker. This is why savvy handicappers assess depth before and after the season starts. Injuries can force oddsmakers to adjust point spreads, but it's more important not to overreact. A team with excellent depth can plug in reserves and not miss a beat for a game or two. Let the NFL betting public overreact and then take advantage of the softer spreads.
Monday Night versus Thursday Night Football
Sunday, Monday, and Thursday night NFL games are built up big, often division rivalries or showdowns between the best teams. For bettors, it's important to understand some important differences between Monday and Thursday night NFL battles. On Monday night, teams had an extra day of preparation than the normal week. One day might not sound like a big deal but it is - if the coaching staff is above-average. Excellent coaching staffs usually have a history of utilizing an extra day of prep well. They can throw in new wrinkles, different formations, or trick plays. Below-average coaching staffs often don't take advantage of this. In addition, cities and fans can get extremely fired up for Monday night games. Even losing teams playing at home on MNF can put forth their best effort of the season with the whole world watching. Those teams know that it's likely to be a sell-out and it will be a big deal for fans on Tuesday at the office. There are many examples of NFL and college football teams putting out great performances on national TV broadcasts during the week. Thursday Night Football has one important difference for NFL players and coaching staffs - a short week. Football is such a violent, physical game that pro athletes need a full week physically to recover from a pounding during an NFL Sunday. But a Thursday Night appearance is very challenging on athletes after all the bumps and bruises they're dealing with after playing Sunday. Factor coaching staffs into your Thursday handicapping, as well. Competent coaching staffs will be better prepared than average or below-average staffs.
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Identifying the right matchups, situations, and betting odds are three of my specialties with over 20+ winning years in the handicapping business. All of my selections are tabulated after careful analysis of the latest information with the reasons why attached. You can take advantage by signing up for my free NFL picks against the spread picks on a regular subscription service. That's free information, insight, and selections to improve your handicapping skills and your betting bankroll.
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