Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers are off a losing season while decimated by injuries, but this is a talented group that has Super Bowl aspirations and the public knows that. It's a ball-control, run-oriented offense behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo. They can do that because the defense is outstanding, fifth in the NFL in total yards allowed in 2020 even though Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and cornerback Richard Sherman combined to miss 40 games with injuries, and the defensive line features four first-round picks. Detroit has a new offensive playbook with first-year coach Dan Campbell and a new QB in Jared Goff (42 TDs, 29 picks the last two seasons). The Lions went heavy in the offseason to upgrade a terrible defensive line in adding defensive tackle Michael Brockers with draft picks DT Levi Onwuzurike and NT Alim McNeill. They join CB Jeffrey Okudah, a Top 5 pick two years ago. This is a ton of points for a home team to get against a solid quarterback. The home crowd should be pumped here. Favorites coming off a losing season in conference games do not perform well against the spread. San Francisco is 7-0 to the UNDER in week one the past seven seasons. Also, the UNDER is 6-2-1 when these teams clash, and this looks like another Week 1 defensive duel. Take the Lions with the points and back the UNDER.

Detroit can't play any worse than it did on Monday night and the Lions will be focused to atone for their national embarrassment against the New York Jets. San Francisco also had high hopes for the season, but the 49ers fell flat in a 24-16 loss at Minnesota. Much-heralded Jimmy Garoppolo was only 15-of-33 for 261 yards and a touchdown but he was sacked three times and threw three interceptions. Kirk Cousins was 20-of-36 for 244 yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers defense and the Vikings totaled 116 rushing yards. The San Francisco secondary suffered some busted coverages and continued to make the glaring mistakes that has confounded fans and coaches for years and that is the defensive backs don't turn around and locate the ball. Matt Stafford will be able to take advantage of those flaws if he forgets how he played on Monday night when he threw four interceptions. Stafford still threw for 286 yards and a touchdown on 27-of-46 attempts. The Lions have gone OVER the last four times they played on Sunday when following a Monday game and they are 10-3 OVER their last 13 games overall dating to last season. The 49ers have gone OVER five of their last seven home games and they are just 4-11 ATS their last 15 home contests. Detroit is 8-2 ATS its last 10 after losing at home by at least 10 points. Look for the Lions to bounce back with the cover and also take the OVER.

The Detroit Lions are an improved team from the one that started the season at 1-7. A lot of the improvement has occurred because they finally found a steady running game, rushing for over 100 yards in five straight games. That has opened up the passing game for Matthew Stafford, and the Lions have been finding the end-zone with more frequency. San Francisco made a move several weeks ago to turn the offense over to Blaine Gabbert, as Colin Kaepernick appeared to lose his way. Gabbert has held a respectable 82.8 passer rating since taking over, and did throw for 263 yards last week vs. a tough Cincinnati secondary. He should find some room against the Lions average secondary in this one. The Lions are getting far too much respect here, however, as this is still a mediocre team. Since 1989, this franchise has been favored by more than a TD just 29 times, and are 11-18 ATS in those games. They have been even worse lately as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven as better than a TD favorite. Detroit has also lost two of their last five straight-up to boot. They have also allowed close to 23 points per game in these games over the last eight all in the past four years. The Niners have been a better team on turf where they are 4-1-1 ATS, and they have come back off a loss to go 5-2 ATS in their last seven. The Lions have covered just six of their last 29 after scoring 30+ in their previous game, and own a 5-1 mark to the OVER in their last six at home. San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well. Take the points on San Francisco and also play the OVER.