Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville has won two of three and is outscoring opponents by +12 for the season. That's the best differential in the AFC South with first-place Tennessee at +4. The Jaguars knocked off the Raiders (27-20) as an underdog, hung in there with Kansas City in a 27-17 loss on the road, then upset the Ravens last week, 28-27. QB Trevor Lawrence (16 TDs, 6 INTs) leads a balanced offense that is Top 10 in total yards, rushing, and yards per carry (4.9). Meanwhile, Detroit is getting outscored by 35 points, the sixth-most in the NFC. The last time they got this much respect from oddsmakers was in Week 4 when, as 4-point chalk, the Lions lost at home to Seattle, 48-45. Detroit's defense is last in the NFL in yards given up (414.5 per game), last on third down (50.75%), and last in points surrendered (28.2 pg). The Lions are 17-41 ATS after having won three of four, plus 21-41 ATS after covering four or five of the last six. Play Jacksonville.

The Detroit Lions and QB Matthew Stafford have been the NFL version of the cardiac kids. The Lions have trailed at some point in the fourth quarter in all nine of their games, yet have emerged victorious in five of them. Going back to last year, the Lions have played 10 straight one-possession games as well as 15 out of 17. The Lions are scoring and allowing 23 points per game, so this is a break-even team all the way around. Jacksonville has struggled on offense, while the defense has done a better than average job, and this is a good matchup for them. The Lions don't run well, but have an above average passing attack, but that plays right into the hands of the Jaguars' defense that allows 5.9 yards per pass attempt vs. a schedule of teams that averages 6.6, so they are strong enough in the back seven to keep the Lions from visiting the end-zone enough to hold the scoring down. Look for this one to play out UNDER the total.

The young Jaguars are rebuilding and retooling (again). But they looked like the old Jaguars last week, getting shut down at the NY Giants in a 23-12 defeat. The same old problems were visible: the O-line allowed three sacks, the offense had 244 yards, and the ground game had 2.4 yards per carry. Now they face a deep and talented Detroit team that has a strong QB rotation with Matt Stafford, Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore. Stafford has been precise through two exhibitions, going 8-for-10, with two incompletions that were catchable. Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley has mixed up having the Jaguars practicing in full pads and they've changed their offensive line yet again, naming Stefen Wisniewski as the starting center this week. The Lions are 23-6 SU and 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 preseason games and a year ago they beat Jacksonville in week three getting six sacks on defense and had the edge in rushing yards 178-85. The Jags ran for 3.4 ypc, the Lions 6.6, and Detroit QBs were 21-of-29 for 190 yards, while the Jaguars offense turned it over twice. Take Detroit on the moneyline.