Detroit Lions vs Indianapolis Colts

Detroit has lost all four preseason games under coach Dan Campbell and the Lions have made it known that they're not concerned about winning in the preseason. The Lions come off a 27-23 loss to Atlanta in familiar fashion as rookie Desmond Ridder threw a go-ahead 21-yard touchdown pass on fourth-and-9 with 1:30 left in the game. Detroit backup QB David Blough lost a fumble at his 33 with two minutes left. Jared Goff insisted on playing and completed 3 of 4 passes for 47 yards, but he isn't expected to play much in this game. Indianapolis lost to Buffalo 27-24 when Tyler Bass kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired and the Colts blew a 14-point lead in the final quarter. Matt Ryan was 6 of 10 passing for 58 yards in his debut for the Colts, who got a good performance from Sam Ehlinger, who completed 10 of 11 passes for 89 yards and two TDs and ran for 24 yards. Nick Foles went 7-for-11 for 72 yards so the Colts currently have plenty of depth at quarterback. Indianapolis coach Frank Reich is 6-4-2 ATS in the preseason and Campbell is 1-3 ATS. The Colts are 8-0-2 ATS their past 10 preseason games as underdogs and they have gone UNDER in Week Two the last three years, including a 12-10 win over the Minnesota that went UNDER by 15 points last year. Detroit's backup QBs, Blough and Tim Boyle, are not much of a threat and the Colts' defense wants to redeem itself after blowing a big lead. Take the Colts ATS as a Max Play and the UNDER.

Indianapolis has won four of its last five games, and it comes off a bye week after defeating Cincinnati, 31-27, two weeks ago. Philip Rivers overall has been everything the Colts had hoped for, and he completed 29 of 44 for 371 yards with three touchdowns and an interception against the Bengals. The biggest surprise has been the defense as the Colts are trailing only the Steelers in yards allowed while giving up just 19.2 points per game. Indianapolis is #19 on offense with 363.2 yards per contest and #10 in passing yards. Detroit has managed to put together two wins in a row, which is rare for the Lions, but those games were against lowly Jacksonville and Atlanta. The Colts are 13-5-1 ATS their last 19 November games while the Lions have covered only two of their last eight home games and five of their last 17 overall. Detroit is 0-7 ATS in Week 8 and 4-9 ATS its last 13 games as an underdog. The Colts are expecting several injured players to get back on the field following the week off, and the Lions still can't be trusted, especially against superior teams. Take the Colts.

Detroit had one of its traditional collapses as it lost the final three games of the season and blew a chance to win the NFC North. The Lions have not had a decent running game since Barry Sanders, and they have rushed for fewer yards than any other team the last two seasons. The defense got worn down, and the Lions allowed 73 points their final two games against the Cowboys and Packers, but they still gave up only 22.4 points per game for the season, which ranked #13 in the league. Indianapolis is crossing its fingers that Andrew Luck can fully recover from shoulder surgery he had in January. However, not only will he not play in preseason, his status for the beginning of the regualr season is in doubt. Frank Gore, miraculously, is still the starting running back, which might say something about the Colts offense. Gore is taking it easy in practice and likely won't play much, if at all, in this game. The Colts defense is expected to be better after an overhaul in every department. Scott Tolzien is Luck's backup, and he appeard in three games in 2016 and started once. Tolzien is 79 of 128 in his career with two touchdowns and seven interceptions. Stephen Morris was drafted in 2014, and still hasn't played in a regular season game. Jake Rudock and rookie Brad Kaaya are second and third in Detroit's QB rotation. Rudock did not make any appearances in the 2016 regular season. Indianapolis is 5-2-1 UNDER the last two preseasons, and the Lions have stayed UNDER six of their last eight preseason affairs. Jim Caldwell is 13-11 UNDER while Chuck Pagano is 11-9 UNDER in exhibiton games. Play the UNDER.

This is an interesting early season match up as both under-achieved offensively, but a lot of the Colts struggles were because Andrew Luck was sidelined. Luck, however, can't do it himself. The talent level at receiver is not what it once was, and the running game is bankrupt. Frank Gore has a diminishing skill set, but despite of that he was on the field for 707 snaps last year, third most in the league for running backs. And at 3.7 yards a tote, and falling, the ground game is getting worse. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford had his second straight below average season, and his worst since 2008, his rookie year. The Lions running game, like that of the Colts, is stagnant and in simple terms, ineffective. That leaves us with a pair of teams that have a lot of one-dimensional aspects to them. And while the defenses for both these teams are not very good, the question remains, can a one-domensional offense take advantage? The answer is yes, but not to the extent of a total that is up over the 50 point mark. Since the start of the 1989 season, we have seen just 12 NFL games in Week 1 with a total of 50+, going 4-7-1. I'm not sure if this game manages to be poised above the 50 point mark as I see a pair of offenses that don't have the tools the odds-makers are giving them credit for. Make the play on the UNDER.