Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans

Detroit has been rolling all season, including 4-0 SU/ATS on the road. The offense is seventh in total yards and on third down, plus No. 1 in points scored (32.3 per game) behind QB Jared Goff (14 TDs, 4 INTs) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs (656 yards, 6.4 ypc). The Lions are on a 20-6 spread run. Houston's offense is 17th in points (22.3 per game) and 16th on third down (38.40%). Wide receivers Nico Collins (hamstring) and Stefon Diggs have been injured, and Diggs has been out for the year. They come off a 21-13 loss to the Jets and have dropped two of three. The Texans are on a 9-12-1 ATS run. Play Detroit. 

Thanksgiving Day hasn't made much difference in Detroit's fortunes as they are as bad on that day than any other as the Lions have lost 12 of their last 16 Turkey Day games, including a 24-20 loss to the Bears last year in yet another game Detroit should have won. The Lions come off a pitiful performance losing 20-0 to Carolina on Sunday and Matthew Stafford was sacked five times as he tried to play with a thumb injury while finishing 18 of 33 for 178 yards. Houston defeated New England 27-20 as Deshaun Watson threw for 344 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. It was the Texans' best performance of the season and their defense, led by J.J. Watt, has had two good showings in a row. Detroit has the #25 ranked offense in the league and are #29 in rushing yards per game. Watson hasn't thrown an interception in five games and he holds the advantage over the injured Stafford (thumb). The Lions are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games and 4-9 ATS versus teams with losing records. Detroit also posts a 4-11 ATS record as the underdog. Houston is a slight favorite but go with the Texans on the moneyline.

Houston played a rare preseason game where one quarterback played the entire game as Joe Webb completed 25-of-40 for 286 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions. Coach Bill O'Brien didn't want to risk injury to starter Deshaun Watson, and AJ McCarron is out with a thumb injury. Even so, the Texans piled up 412 total yards in losing 28-26 to Green Bay. Webb also ran for 47 yards as the Texans recorded 138 yards on the ground. Houston signed rookie QB Jordan Ta'amu out of Ole Miss to fill the gap. O'Brien is 12-8 straight-up, 12-7-1 ATS in the preseason, and 13-7 UNDER. Detroit looked as bad as could be in all phases of the game as the Lions are breaking in yet another new offense. Coach Matt Patricia's specialty is defense, but you wouldn't know it as New England racked up 459 total yards in annihilating the Lions 31-3 in the opener. Detroit managed only 93 yards of total offense, and the QBs were sacked nine times as the team was booed off the field by the long-suffering Detroit fans. Matt Stafford's backup, David Fales, was 5-of-14 for 62 yards and an interception, and Tom Savage completed 2-of-3 for 40 yards. Patricia was 1-3 straight-up and ATS in his first preseason in 2018, and it looks bleak again this year with a totally incompetent offense. Play the Texans and the UNDER.

The Detroit Lions have the sixth best record in the NFL since November 1 of last year at 10-5. Can you believe that? They are one of two NFL teams that have not lost a game over that 15-game period by more than one possession. The fact is that the Lions have either won or been in every game they have played for the last year, and have a lot of hidden value. The Texans held five of their last nine opponents last year to six or fewer points, and their last five opponents this season have averaged 25.6 points per game. Do you think they miss J.J. Watt? It is pretty obvious that he was the glue to the defense, which has become unglued. The bigger problem is their -6 turnover margin, and the fact they have not thrown for over 256 yards in any of their six games. Brock Osweiller has been brutal with eight INTs and a 71 passer rating, while Matthew Stafford carries a 105.7 passer rating into this game along with 15 TDs and four INTs on the season. Detroit has been a team plagued by turnovers over the past several seasons, but just five on the season this year, and it is showing up in the win column. Make the play on Detroit.