Detroit Lions vs Houston Texans

Thanksgiving Day hasn't made much difference in Detroit's fortunes as they are as bad on that day than any other as the Lions have lost 12 of their last 16 Turkey Day games, including a 24-20 loss to the Bears last year in yet another game Detroit should have won. The Lions come off a pitiful performance losing 20-0 to Carolina on Sunday and Matthew Stafford was sacked five times as he tried to play with a thumb injury while finishing 18 of 33 for 178 yards. Houston defeated New England 27-20 as Deshaun Watson threw for 344 yards and accounted for three touchdowns. It was the Texans' best performance of the season and their defense, led by J.J. Watt, has had two good showings in a row. Detroit has the #25 ranked offense in the league and are #29 in rushing yards per game. Watson hasn't thrown an interception in five games and he holds the advantage over the injured Stafford (thumb). The Lions are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games and 4-9 ATS versus teams with losing records. Detroit also posts a 4-11 ATS record as the underdog. Houston is a slight favorite but go with the Texans on the moneyline.

Houston played a rare preseason game where one quarterback played the entire game as Joe Webb completed 25-of-40 for 286 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions. Coach Bill O'Brien didn't want to risk injury to starter Deshaun Watson, and AJ McCarron is out with a thumb injury. Even so, the Texans piled up 412 total yards in losing 28-26 to Green Bay. Webb also ran for 47 yards as the Texans recorded 138 yards on the ground. Houston signed rookie QB Jordan Ta'amu out of Ole Miss to fill the gap. O'Brien is 12-8 straight-up, 12-7-1 ATS in the preseason, and 13-7 UNDER. Detroit looked as bad as could be in all phases of the game as the Lions are breaking in yet another new offense. Coach Matt Patricia's specialty is defense, but you wouldn't know it as New England racked up 459 total yards in annihilating the Lions 31-3 in the opener. Detroit managed only 93 yards of total offense, and the QBs were sacked nine times as the team was booed off the field by the long-suffering Detroit fans. Matt Stafford's backup, David Fales, was 5-of-14 for 62 yards and an interception, and Tom Savage completed 2-of-3 for 40 yards. Patricia was 1-3 straight-up and ATS in his first preseason in 2018, and it looks bleak again this year with a totally incompetent offense. Play the Texans and the UNDER.

The Detroit Lions have the sixth best record in the NFL since November 1 of last year at 10-5. Can you believe that? They are one of two NFL teams that have not lost a game over that 15-game period by more than one possession. The fact is that the Lions have either won or been in every game they have played for the last year, and have a lot of hidden value. The Texans held five of their last nine opponents last year to six or fewer points, and their last five opponents this season have averaged 25.6 points per game. Do you think they miss J.J. Watt? It is pretty obvious that he was the glue to the defense, which has become unglued. The bigger problem is their -6 turnover margin, and the fact they have not thrown for over 256 yards in any of their six games. Brock Osweiller has been brutal with eight INTs and a 71 passer rating, while Matthew Stafford carries a 105.7 passer rating into this game along with 15 TDs and four INTs on the season. Detroit has been a team plagued by turnovers over the past several seasons, but just five on the season this year, and it is showing up in the win column. Make the play on Detroit.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Detroit Lions have held the Thanksgiving tradition of hosting a game for 73 years. But, lately there is another growing tradition: The Lions eating humble pie on this holiday. They have now lost eight straight Turkey Day games. Detroit finally made a playoffs appearance last year, but it was a quick and decisive exodus. Hope was high last season as the Lions started off on fire but it was quickly exposed as a mirage. The Lions had a rather easy schedule last season and made the playoffs despite no wins vs. a winning team. They have beaten just one winning team this season, marking the last 26 games played with just one victory over a winning team. They came out smoking last year at 5-0, but have been just 9-13 since. The defense is still below average, and an offense that produced 34 points or more seven times last year, has reached that mark just once this season. On the season the Lions are averaging a very pedestrian 23.6 points per game. So while they are considered all offense that has not been the case this season. Detroit is just 2-27 strasight-up in their last 29 games vs. top level teams (those above .750). Under Jim Schwartz, the Lions are 8-29 straight-up as an underdog and 1-16 straight-up vs. elite quarterbacks (teams with 64%+ completion rate). Detroit is off a hard-fought loss to Green Bay and underdogs that are coming off a loss to a division rival win their next game just 29.8% of the time. When facing a team at .800+, that figure drops to 20%. While I think Houston probably wins and covers here, I think the best bet is Houston on the moneyline. I also like the UNDER in this game. The Houston defense is ranked No. 4 in the league. They are allowing just 18 points per game (13.7 per game on the road). So, a Detroit offensive explosion is not likely here. The Texans are 10-1 to the UNDER after allowing 30+ points in their previous game and after that showing vs. Jacksonville, you can be sure this defense will be out to make a statement here. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are 14-5 UNDER in late-season play when facing a losing team. Houston has the ground game to shorten the game with a lead and this total is high. Take the Texans to win, and the UNDER.