Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

6-1 vs. 2-5. This is a no-brainer, right? Bettors certainly think so, with 65% of the bets in this one coming in on the mighty Chiefs. They can see the two or three TD blowout already. But I see this playing out differently. No matter how much Denver struggles it always seems to keep it close against division foe Kansas City. The Broncos had covered three straight meetings before losing 19-8 to the Chiefs on Oct. 12, missing the fourth straight cover by a half-point. Denver got their second win of the season 19-17 over Green Bay on Sunday when Will Lutz kicked a go-ahead 52-yard field goal with 3:50 left. Denver had a 339-331 edge in total yards and Russell Wilson had his most efficient performance of the season completing 20 of 29 for for 194 yards with no interceptions and a touchdown. The Broncos appear to finally be improving under new coach Sean Payton and they are 10-1 ATS the past 11 years in Week 8. The good news is KC will be hard pressed not to underestimate the Broncos here. Kansas City is 7-19 ATS after scoring more than 30 points its previous game and 8-20-1 ATS overall as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. Dating back to last season, Kansas City is just 1-8 ATS after a double-digit win. The Denver defense has come a long way since giving up 70 points against Miami as the Broncos have allowed 23.8 points its past four games. Denver has allowed just 18 points per game in division games this season. Sean Payton coached teams step up in the underdog role, going 49-31 ATS overall including 25-12 ATS in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. He's also 18-5 ATS in same-season revenge games. Take the points with the Broncos as my Game of the Month.

I know, I know. I can feel the cringe with this pick. But hear me out. Kansas City had to rally to beat Minnesota 27-20 last Sunday, surviving another scare as they did against the New York Jets the previous week. Now the Chiefs are laying double digits, and can't be too "up" for this game against one of the worst teams in the league. Denver has covered its past four games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Broncos are 3-0 ATS the past three meetings between theser clubs and came close to defeating the Chiefs outright twice last season. Denver had one final chance against the Jets on Sunday, but fumbled in the final minute and cornerback Bryce Hall returned it 39 yards for a touchdown, crowning 31-21 win. Russell Wilson threw for 196 yards and two TDs as he continues to adjust to the new coaching staff. Kansas City is 3-9-1 ATS its past 13 against teams with losing records, 2-7 ATS overall following an ATS win, and 6-13-1 ATS after a straight-up win. Also, the Chiefs are 1-6 ATS versus AFC West opponents and 4-12 ATS vs. conference foes. Clearly the Chiefs are the way better team, but this is too many points and we have the emotional edge with a Denver team that desperately wants to show up, vs. a Chiefs team that may be taking their opponent a bit lightly. Take the points with the Broncos - Max Play.

Earlier this week I read a sports betting analyst say that things were so bad in Denver that you should not bet them at any price. As soon as I read that, I knew I had to back the Broncos this week. Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett as the season has become a disaster and hired Jerry Rosburg as the interim coach for the final two games. Teams usually respond well to a new coach especially in his first game as the players want to make a good impression and also get the feeling of a new lease on life. Kansas City currently is the No. 2 seed in the AFC and it could gain the top seed by winning its last two with Buffalo losing at least once. The Chiefs also have to watch out for Cincinnati, who would hold the tiebreaker. The Chiefs have been a money burner with a 2-7-1 ATS record their past 10 games although they did cover against Seattle 24-10 on Saturday. The Broncos had covered the number three straight before getting humiliated 51-14 by Las Vegas. The Chiefs barely won the first meeting 34-28 on Dec. 11 and Russell Wilson threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Denver is 16-5 ATS its past 21 games after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and the Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS their past eight home games. The Broncos are 40-17-1 UNDER versus AFC teams and 19-7 UNDER their past 26 games overall. Kansas City has gone UNDER five straight home games. Teams that were embarrassed the previous game tend to come out focused the next game. This line is shaded because no one wants anything to do with Denver. Take the (extra) points with the Broncos and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Kansas City's defense is playing well allowing an average of 20.7 points over the last seven games (5-2 UNDER). The Chiefs are 75-60 UNDER the total as a favorite. Denver's offense is terrible ranked 26th in yards, 30th on third down, and dead-last in points (13.8 pg). QB Russell Wilson (8 TDs, 5 INTs) has been sacked 37 times and gets little help from a ground game that is 22nd in rushing yards and 28th in yards per carry (4.0). At least the defense is strong, third in yards allowed and on third down, plus second in points (17 pg) surrendered. The Broncos are on an 11-1 run UNDER the total, 9-0 UNDER on natural grass, plus 13-4 UNDER against teams that average 5.65 yards per play or more. Play Kansas City/Denver UNDER the total.