Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay got into the playoffs with an 8-9 record thanks to the weak NFC South and the Buccaneers are 4-12-1 ATS and 11-6 UNDER this season. Tom Brady had another prolific year statwise throwing for 4,694 yards and 25 touchdowns and broke the NFL record for completions with 490. However, the offense as a whole struggled through most of the season and was #25 with 18.4 points per game and dead last in rushing. Dallas was #12 in total yards allowed and #5 in scoring defense with 20.1 points per contest. The teams met in September and the Bucs won 19-3 and it went UNDER by 27.5 points. The Cowboys stayed UNDER by nine points last week in their 26-6 loss at Washington and they replaced most of their starters in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescott threw for only 128 yards and a TD and has made some bad decisions his last few games. However, Prescott still is capable of putting up the kind of numbers he had versus Philadelphia on Christmas Eve when he completed 27 of 35 for 347 yards and three TDs with one pick. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS following a loss and 19-6-1 ATS their past 26 games after losing by at least two touchdowns. Dallas is 9-4-1 UNDER its past 14 road games and Tampa Bay is 0-7-1 ATS after a loss and 15-5 UNDER against NFC teams dating to last season. Also, the Buccaneers are 12-3 UNDER following a loss. Take the Cowboys as a Max Play and the UNDER.

This is a rematch of the 2021 thrilling season opener when Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 31-29 on a Thursday night. This year the Bucs get a short-handed Dallas team that is dealing with several injuries, including cornerback Trevon Diggs, running back Tony Pollard, safeties Jayron Kearse and Donovan Wilson and star running back Ezekiel Elliott to name a few who are either out or questionable. Tampa Bay covered seven of their final 10 games last year and almost completed a miraculous comeback against the Rams in the 2021 playoffs. Dallas led the league with 7.8 penalties per game. Todd Bowles is the new coach of Tampa Bay and he's been there three years as an assistant and the bulk of the rest of the coaching staff is still there making it a smooth transition. Brady threw for 5,316 yards and 43 TDs with only 12 interceptions and Tampa Bay won eight of its final 10 games last year. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott's depleted wide receiver corps has not looked great in preseason. Tampa Bay is a slight favorite, but go with the Buccaneers on the money line.

Dallas is glad to have 2020 behind them when injuries decimated their key players, including much of what is a very good offensive line. QB Dak Prescott is notably healthy for this game, but the O-line is already dealing with a couple of Covid-related issues through preseason that I'll be keeping an eye on. The Dallas 'D' made important changes, dumping their old system and defensive coordinator. New DC, Dan Quinn, brings in a hybrid 4-3/Tampa Cover-2 scheme, which far better suits the personnel. They also added No. 10 overall pick LB Micah Parsons and CB Kelvin Joseph (second round) while signing hard-hitting free agent safety Keanu Neal. QB Prescott has excellent weapons around him and was off to a terrific start last year before his injury, throwing for 1,856 yards and 9 TDs in just over four games. The Cowboys averaged 32.6 points in the five games Prescott played. This is Week 1, where defenses are often ahead of the offenses, and the matchups suggest a game decided by a field goal. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy is 95-66 ATS on grass fields, so back the talented big dog to keep it close all the way. Take the points and make the play Dallas.

Dallas had a rare preseason blowout win last week against Houston, but Jason Garrett still is only 14-22 straight-up and 11-22-3 ATS in preseason and the Cowboys lost last year's exhibition finale 14-6 to Houston. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay comes off a last-minute 13-12 win over Cleveland when Matt Gay kicked a 21-yard field goal and Ryan Griffin had a decent showing, completing 11-of-17 for 121 yards and a touchdown and Jameis Winston was 9-of-19 for 88 yards. The Buccaneers appear to have depth at quarterback as even Blaine Gabbert got in on the action and completed 4-of-5 for 33 yards. Tampa Bay has shown the motivation to win these games unlike Garrett's preseason history. Play the Buccaneers on the moneyline.