Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants

Dallas has the right opponent to get back on track as it has defeated the Giants six times in a row (5-1 ATS) and 13 of the past 14 meetings, including six of the past seven on the road. The Cowboys won by a combined score of 89-17 in last year's two meetings and Dallas is 22-3 ATS its past 25 games as a division favorite of more than two points. Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 851 passing yards with four touchdowns, but he has been sacked nine times. New York won for the first time 21-10 over Cleveland with Daniel Jones completing 24 of 34 for 236 yards. The Giants rushed for 112 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and they have averaged only 15 points per game this season. Dallas is 6-1-1 UNDER its past eight games as a road favorite and 12-3 UNDER overall after allowing at least 150 rushing yards its previous game. New York has gone UNDER five of its past six September games and five of six Week 4 games. The Dallas defense has been embarrassed two weeks in a row and look for it to atone for it on Thursday night. Take the Cowboys to cover, and bet this one to stay UNDER.

The New York Giants offense is a mess — one reason this team is 8-1 to the UNDER this season. They lost starting QB Daniel Jones, and also his backup Tyrod Taylor. That means Tommy Devito gets his first start. He will be in trouble as this Dallas team gets pressure on the QB 45% of all dropbacks. The Giants are averaging a woeful 11.2ppg and coming off scoring 10 or fewer points in three of their last four games and four of their last six. The Giants are staying in recent games because the defense has been stingy. The Giants defense has held three of their last four opponents to 14 or fewer points. I just don't see a lot of points here, and I expect the Giants to do a lot of running behind Barkley. Make the play UNDER the total.

New York enjoyed its first winning season since 2016 and Brian Daboll was named NFL Coach of the Year as the Giants finished 9-7-1 and made the playoffs. Daniel Jones had his best season as he threw only five interceptions and compiled career bests in completions and passing yards. The Giants return both coordinators, Mike Kafka for offense and Wink Martindale for defense, and Saquan Barkley is back after a messy contract dispute. Barkley rushed for 1,312 yards on 4.5 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns in 2022 and Jones threw for 3,205 yards and 15 TD passes. The run defense is improved with the additions of Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A'Shawn Robinson as the Giants made that one of their offseason priorities after finishing #27 in the league. Dallas will try again to make it to the NFC title game for the first time in 28 years. Dak Prescott tied for the league lead in interceptions with 15 and he played in only 12 games. Prescott peaked his rookie season when he he was fortunate to have Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and a great offensive line. Tony Pollard is the main man now in the backfield and Mike McCarthy plans to run the ball more. New York covered five of its last six games and the Cowboys went UNDER their last four road games and last four overall. The Giants are 6-1 UNDER in Week 1 and 34-15-3 UNDER their past 52 games overall and 25-10-2 UNDER as home underdogs. Dallas is 15-7-1 UNDER versus NFC teams. New York has covered five of seven at home. Take the Giants as a Max Play and the UNDER.

New York is 7-2-1 UNDER this season and Dallas is 6-3-1 UNDER after the Cowboys completely shut down the Vikings 40-3 and sacked Kirk Cousins seven times. Dallas ran 40 times for 151 yards and Tony Pollard scored twice and had 189 yards from scrimmage. The Giants had gone UNDER four times in a row before losing 31-18 to Detroit and it missed the UNDER by 4.5 points when New York scored a touchdown with 4:20 left. Dallas won the first meeting 23-16 and the total pushed, but this posted total is about five points higher. The Giants are 15-5-1 UNDER after losing by double digits at home and they are 8-1 UNDER their past nine November games and 18-7-1 UNDER overall after an ATS loss. Dallas is 6-1 UNDER its past seven home games and 12-5-1 UNDER overall against the NFC. The Giants managed only 89 yards rushing on 26 carries against the Lions with Saquon Barkley averaging 1.47 yards per carry. Take the UNDER.