Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

The totals just keep getting lower in the NFL and this matchup appears to be a classic UNDER with the grind-it-out Steelers facing Cleveland, which lost Deshaun Watson for the year with shoulder and ankle injuries. Pittsburgh averages only 17.3 points  and the Browns give up just 18.9 per game. The Steelers had gone UNDER six consecutive games before Sunday's 23-19 win over Green Bay that missed staying UNDER by 3.5 points. Cleveland is 4-3-1 UNDER this season, but that was with Watson for the majority of the games. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson is slated to start this game for the Browns. The UNDER is 7-0-2 in Cleveland's past nine home games and the Steelers have stayed UNDER five straight versus AFC opponents. Play the UNDER as a Max Play.

Pittsburgh has won 23 of 25 home games against the Browns and the Steelers are a slight underdog in this matchup and Mike Tomlin is 49-29 ATS in his career when getting points. Cleveland's victory over Cincinnati doesn't look as impressive as the Bengals lost again in Week 2 and Joe Burrow still hasn't recovered from a calf injury as his team didn't record a first down until 10 minutes into the second quarter against Baltimore. Deshaun Watson was 16 of 29 for 154 yards with an interception and Cleveland ran the ball 40 times for 206 yards. The Browns lost offensive tackle Jack Conklin (knee) for the season and wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin injury. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS after losing by double digits at home and 20-6-3 ATS as home dogs. The Browns are 3-13 ATS following a win of more than 14 points and they are 7-1 UNDER their past seven games overall and 6-0 UNDER as road favorites. Pittsburgh is 6-1 UNDER its past seven September games and 11-5 UNDER following an ATS loss. Play the Steelers and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Cleveland put on another great defensive performance in defeating Washington 24-10 and the Browns now have allowed an average of only 14 points their past six games. The Browns intercepted Carson Wentz three times and held him to 143 passing yards. Nick Chubb ran for 104 yards and Amari Cooper caught three passes for 105 yards and two TDs as Cleveland put together one of its best all-around games of the season. DeShaun Watson was only nine of 18 for 169 yards, but without a turnover. The Browns have covered four of six and they won the first meeting 29-17. Pittsburgh has been squeaking by teams and it pulled out a 16-13 victory over Baltimore and the Steelers can still make the playoffs by winning this game and Miami and New England both lose. However, Cleveland would like nothing more than to keep that from happening as the Steelers are their archrivals and the Browns and Watson need to gain some confidence going into next year when he'll be there for the full season. Cleveland has covered the number four of five versus the AFC North and the Steelers are 2-6 ATS overall after giving up fewer than 15 points their previous game. Pittsburgh is #23 in total offense yards and #29 with 17.5 points per game. Play the Browns as a Max Play.

Unfortunately for Cleveland it has a short week to recover from a monumental collapse as the Browns blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes and lost 31-30 to the New York Jets. Jacoby Brissett had a decent day completing 22 of 27 for 229 yards with an interception, but it all went for naught when the Jets recovered an onside kick and Joe Flacco threw the last of his four TD passes to win the thriller. To make matters worse, this week the Browns won't have injured defensive linemen Jadeveon Clowney and Chase Winovich. Pittsburgh QB Mitch Trubisky already is getting some heat after finishing 21 of 33 for only 168 yards in a loss to New England. However, he is going to make an effort to be more of a two-way threat and using his legs more, which is one of the reasons the Steelers acquired him. The posted total is very low even though the Browns have gone OVER their first two games and they are 6-1 OVER their past seven September games. The Browns have gone OVER 11 of 15 after yielding at least 250 passing yards their previous game. Pittsburgh has covered five of the last six meetings and the Steelers are 4-1 ATS following a loss dating to last season. The Browns are 8-21 ATS their past 29 versus the AFC and 1-5 ATS overall their last six home games. Look for more production from Trubisky as he tried to stave off the inevitable debut of rookie Kenny Pickett. Take the Steelers and the OVER.

Cleveland's strength is on defense, seventh in the NFL in yards allowed, and #10 against the pass, and the Browns are on a 8-5 run UNDER the total. QB Baker Mayfield (15 TDs, 11 interceptions) leads an erratic offense that has topped 23 points only once in the last six games. They prefer to run the football, which keeps the clock moving. It will be chilly in Pittsburgh (27 degrees) and the Browns are 40-23 UNDER the total against teams that average 90 or fewer yards rushing. The Steelers have no running game to help QB Ben Roethlisberger (20 TDs, 8 INTs), who has been sacked 35 times. These rivals played a 15-10 game in October and the Steelers are 42-29 UNDER the total as an underdog. Teams off blowout losses playing late-season games have gone UNDER at a 66% clip the past decade. Take Cleveland/Pittsburgh UNDER as a Max Play.