Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins

Cleveland has had an extra three days to prepare for this one and recover from the Myles Garrett debacle. Despite all the turmoil, the Browns have won two in a row and Baker Mayfield has been humbled and is beginning to look more like an adequate quarterback - at least for time being. Mayfield went 17-of-32 for 193 yards with two touchdown passes and most notably no interceptions in his team's 21-7 win against Pittsburgh. The Cleveland defense picked off Mason Rudolph four times and the Browns now have allowed an average of only 18.5 points the last four games.  Miami is averaging only 13.9 points on the season and the Dolphins are #29 in the league in total offense yards. Miami also is #29 defensively giving up 394.3 yards per game and 30.5 points. Miami is 5-12 ATS over its last 17 road games and 8-24-1 ATS its last 33 games after allowing at least 30 points its previous game. The Dolphins lost by 17 to the Bills, which Cleveland defeated the week before. Lay the points with the Browns.

Cleveland heads out on the road struggling on offense, averaging just 15 points per game. WR Corey Coleman, the Browns' rookie wide receiver and first-round draft pick, fractured his hand in practice on Wednesday. They are down to their third-string QB in rookie Cody Kessler, so look for a heavy dose of runs and short passes to control the ball and the clock. RB Isaiah Crowell had 133 yards (7.4 yards per carry) against Baltimore last Sunday as the team ran for 145 yards (6.3 ypc) behind this very strong offensive line. In Week 1 they ran for 120 yards (5.7 ypc) against the Eagles. RB Crowell quietly has 195 yards for a stellar 6.5 yards per carry. That will work against a Miami defense that has a lot of holes. The secondary is terrible and the linebackers are bad in pass coverage. Cleveland's defense is decent up front, stuffing the Ravens last week where they allowed 80 yards rushing, just 3.1 ypc, and they held Philadelphia to 3.9 ypc. Cleveland is also 31-15-1 UNDER the total against a team with a losing record. Miami is home from a brutal two-game trip, playing the physical Seahawks and Patriots. They are a worn out group already from the long trips and punishing contests. Miami's offense has been awful in six of eight quarters, only racking up a ton of yards and points in the second half last week after trailing 31-3. They are #25 in the NFL in total yards, #27 in points. The Dolphins are on a 2-9 ATS run at home, plus 13-41-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. With the Browns 18-7-1 ATS away vs. a team with a losing home record, grab the big dog in a defensive duel. Play Cleveland and the UNDER.

The Dolphins have opened up 0-2, but to their defense they have faced a pair of 2-0 opponents that look like playoff-caliber teams, and they were at least competitive in each. They faced two of the absolute best offenses in the league the past two weeks and now they finally get a below-average one. Miami can get pressure on the QB, as they brought Matt Shaub down three times last week, and Colt McCoy has proven vulnerable against pressure. The secondary won't have the likes of Andre Johnson or Wes Welker to contend with this week, which should afford them more opportunities to blitz and get added pressure on McCoy. Miami got their ground game together last week, and I expect to see them running the ball a lot here. They should also find enough success throug the air. The Browns lost to Cincinnati, and beat a truly bad Colts team, so they certainly haven't proven anything yet. Miami has been one of the best road teams in the league of under Tony Sparano, having gone 13-5 ATS in his tenure as a road dog, including 7-0 ATS as a dog of 3 or less. The Browns on the other hand, are 0-5 ATS at home in their last five in Cleveland. Cleveland gave up 27 to the Bengals and 19 to a Colts team that really has no offense right now. Miami is 14-6 OVER in their last 20 games after scoring 14 or less and the Browns have gone OVER to the tune of 11-5 in their last sixteen vs. losing teams. Take the Fins and the OVER here.