Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

The due factor is firmly against Kansas City as it consistently pulls off wins, which is why the Chiefs aren't a more significant favorite against the Browns. The Chiefs are on a 0-7 ATS run, including 0-5 ATS against AFC opponents. They have 1-5 ATS in their past six games against Cleveland, and the Browns have 13-6 ATS in their past 19 home games, 5-1 ATS at home versus teams with winning road records. Kansas City's past six wins have a margin of victory of 3.7 points, and it will not be surprising if the Chiefs look past this game with Houston, Pittsburgh, and Denver on deck. They only outgained the Chargers 298-288 while winning 19-17 on a last-second field goal. Cleveland outgained the Steelers 300-267 last week, and the Browns defense is #13 against the pass. Kansas City might eke out another win, but take the points with the Browns.

Kansas City has been playing with fire all season, even with a 14-2 record as the Chiefs are just 7-9 ATS, including 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Now they face a sky-high and confident team in the Cleveland Browns, who embarrassed their long time nemesis, Pittsburgh Steelers, on Sunday, even with a makeshift offensive line and without their head coach. Kevin Stefanski plans on being back on the sideline to lead his team this week, and cornerback Denzel Ward is off the COVID protocol also. The Browns have won seven of their last nine games, and Baker Mayfield had no trouble in his first playoff game throwing for 263 yards and three touchdowns. Pat Mahomes has not played since Dec. 27 as he sat out the season finale, and the Chiefs have become mostly one-dimensional since running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire went out with an ankle injury. He returned to practice this week, but a high-ankle sprain is tough to predict. The Chiefs have not covered their last four home games, and their widest margin of victory their last eight games was six points. Cleveland is a live dog in this matchup. Play Cleveland ATS as a Max Play and also on the moneyline for a half-unit.

The Chiefs have jumped the Shark. While going largely unnoticed for much of their eight-game winning streak, they are unnoticed no more. As a result, they are getting overvalued by oddsmakers with huge point spreads now. The Chiefs have a conservative offense even with star RB Jamaal Charles out for the season. The weather for Sunday's game will not help either offense, as it will be close to freezing with light rain and 15-20 MPH winds. Kansas City has lost two games at home and they face a Cleveland team that has been competitive down the stretch of this lost season. In the last four games they should have beaten the Ravens, scoring 27 points but losing on a fluke blocked kick in OT. The Browns also routed the 49ers, 24-10. Cleveland has had to face some very tought teams recently as in their last nine games they had to play Cincinnati twice, Denver, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Seattle. So no wonder they have been losing. Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel (7 TDs, 4 INTs) has reclaimed the starting job and is actually throwing well, showing a lot of improvement from his rookie campaign. His mobility (122 rushing yards) will help in this one against the KC defense in the wind and rain. Browns TE Gary Barnidge (930 yards) is a strong target for Manziel and needs 70 receiving yards to join Ozzie Newsome and Kellen Winslow Jr. as the only tight ends in franchise history with 1,000-yard receiving seasons. The Browns are 7-3-1 ATS after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game, so jump on the big dog. Play the Browns on this inflated number.