Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos

Cleveland holds the big defensive edge in this matchup as it allows 18.0 points per game compared to 26.8 for the Broncos and both teams score about the same, that is 22.7 for Cleveland and 21.7 for Denver. The Browns went with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Pittsburgh and he did enough to get them the victory and threw for 165 yards. The Browns had gone OVER three of four before running into the stout Steeler defense. Cleveland is 7-3 straight up and ATS and the Broncos are 3-6-1 ATS and missed a two-point conversion that would have given them the cover in their 21-20 win over Minnesota on Sunday night. Denver has won its past two games against Buffalo and the Vikings by smoke and mirrors and now it faces a hot Cleveland team that has covered four straight. The Browns have gone OVER their past five road games and they are 6-2 OVER as road underdogs of 0.3-3.0 points. The Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS as home favorites and 3-10 ATS overall followimg a win. Take the Browns and the OVER.

There will be excellent weather in Denver Saturday, 57 degrees and sunny. Cleveland's offense has topped 26 points in three of its last four games. Since Gregg Williams replaced Hue Jackson as head coach and Freddie Kitchens replaced Toddy Haley as offensive coordinator, QB Baker Mayfield has had five games during which he completed at least 67 percent of his passes. In the last four games, Mayfield has completed 74.8 percent (83-of-111) with nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Cleveland's defense is #24 in the NFL in points allowed, with the Browns 8-3 OVER the total on the road against a team with a losing home record. Cleveland is also 10-1 OVER away against teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. They face a Denver offense that is #16 in the league in total yards, seventh in rushing. Denver is on a 125-94 run OVER the total as chalk, including 107-76 OVER as a home favorite. The Broncos are home from a two-game road trek and are 38-21 OVER the total when following a two-game road trip. Play the OVER.

The Denver Broncos remain perfect, as they head to Cleveland at 5-0 on the season. A lot has been written about Peyton Manning, and the lack of any zip on his passes, but what he does give the Broncos is strong offensive leadership, and while the skillset is declining, the Broncos keep winning. One thing that could aid the cause here is a lackluster running game. That should change here as the Browns sit at the bottom of the league, allowing 5.05 yards per carry, and that should help set Manning up for play-action opportunities, and better down-and-distance situations. The Denver defense has been their strength, and have been able to get pressure on the QB, however, it is likely that DeMarcus Ware will sit out this game, and that changes some things. Josh MsCown is off a huge game for the Browns, and without Ware to rattle him, he should have some opportunities vs. the Broncos. McCown has completed 68.1% of his[passes in the last three weeks good for 1,154 yards six TDs and one INT. While I don't think he will have a big game here against a top rated Denver defense, I do think he will move the chains and score enough points to push this one OVER the total. Manning will be in a good spot here, and I think he finally puts some sizable numbers on the scoreboard for the Denver offense. Denver seldom lets down vs. a losing team, and are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 against them. Denver is also 40-16-1 to the OVER in their last 57 following a game where they threw for greater than 250 yards. The Browns are 5-0 to the OVER this season. Take Denver and the OVER.