Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas, as usual, has plenty of talent and appears to be a championship contender, but will the Cowboys finally break through and go deep in the playoffs? Dak Prescott had another stellar regular season, throwing for 4.516 yards and 36 touchdowns, but fizzled in the postseason as Green Bay trounced the Cowboys. The Cowboys have covered four of their past five September games, and they are 9-2 ATS against AFC North squads. Cleveland, incredibly, is 2-16-1 straight up its past 19 Week 1 games, although it did get a 24-3 win over Cincinnati in the 2023 opener. Deshaun Watson will have a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey, but Watson has not shown much since coming over to the Browns and keeps getting injured. Cleveland started five different quarterbacks in 2023 and had to depend on Joe Flacco to get into the postseason when the Browns were routed 45-14 by Houston. Dallas has gone UNDER nine of its past 13 road games and five of six overall against AFC opponents. Cleveland is 12-5 UNDER versus NFC teams. The Browns hired Ken Dorsey to run the offense, but he was fired by the Buffalo Bills as the offensive coordinator last season due to their struggling offense. Both teams are looking to stabilize their running games, and that will use a lot of clock. They were two of the top defensive teams in 2023. Take the Cowboys and the UNDER.

Dallas should be 0-3 straight up instead of 0-3 ATS as the Cowboys were fortunate to take advantage of Atlanta's meltdown in Week 2. The Cowboys come off a tough 38-31 loss at Seattle on Sunday as DK Metcalf redeemed himself after an earlier huge mental error and caught a 29-yard touchdown pass to seal the win for Seattle. Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for Dallas. The Cowboys gained only 61 yards on the ground on 2.9 yards per carry. The defense has been the major problem though as it ranks third-to-last in the league allowing 32.3 points per game while forcing only two turnovers, and it is #26 in yards allowed. Cleveland actually put together two wins in a row while scoring an average of 34.5 points, and Baker Mayfield threw two touchdown passes while Nick Chubb ran for two more in a 34-20 win over Washington. The Browns have a winning record for the first time in nearly six years, and they are showing signs of finally getting over the rebuilding hump. Dallas has covered just once its last five games as a favorite, and the Cowboys are 2-8 ATS their last 10 versus teams with winning records. Look for Cleveland to keep this one close. Play the Browns.

The Dallas Cowboys have the talent to win this game by plenty. But, over the past two years that talent has failed to manifest itself on the field. As a result, the Cowboys often find themselves in a battle week in week out regardless of the opponent. Going back to last year in a full season of games, Dallas is just 7-9 in their last 16, winning just two of those by more than 7 points. So 14 times they would have failed against this number, which is very telling. The fact is, Dallas plays up or down to their competition. Over the past three seasons, the underdog in Cowboys games has gone 34-12 ATS. Cleveland doesn't win many games, but they often find themselves in them, falling just short. The Browns are 2-11 straight-up in their last 13 games, but they have lost just one of the 11 by more than 10 points. Looking at those numbers from each side, as much as they shouldn't be, the Browns are likely to be in this game down the stretch. Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when taking 6 or more points, and are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Dallas has not played well at home, going 2-9 ATS in their last nine home games. Dallas is also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons after a win. Take the points and play on Cleveland.

Cleveland may still be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL odds-makers. Even after an incredible 2006 season, they still get no respect. Or maybe it's just that the public loves Dallas. How else can you explain a 10-win team getting over a field goal at home? This is a team that came into its own last season after a 2-3 start. The difference was a QB in Derek Anderson that could lead the team down field consistently. Anderson threw for nearly 4,000 yards, and finished with 29 TD tosses. Romeo Crennel benched Charlie Frye in the first half of the opener vs the Steelers, and never looked back. Once Anderson got it going the Browns finished good, going 8-3 behind Anderson. His success had a side effect that largely went unnoticed. The Browns defense was on the field constantly early, and allowed 30+ points in seven of the first ten games. Down the stretch, the Browns defense was much better, as they were on the field less and less, getting blows by an offense that could stay on the field. They did not allow a 30 point game in their last six. A defense that had allowed 29.4 ppg over the first 10 was suddenly allowing 14.7 ppg in their last six. The Browns went 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS with Anderson as their starter at home. That includes 2-0 as a home dog. Dallas opened the season at 12-1 last year, the only blemish was quite excusable, to the New England Patriots. Something happened to this team from that point on, however. They finished 1-3, and suddenly a team that scored no less than 24 points in each of the first 13 games, could muster just 6, 20, 6 and 17 in their final four games (12 ppg). They failed to cover the spread in all five of their final games. A lot had to do with the disappointing finish by Tony Romo. He was just 66-130 over those last four games, with just two TD's compared to 5 INT's. Romo has been plagued by ups and downs in his short career, and his lack of consistency has hurt the Cowboys when they needed him the most. The Cowboys struggled in games at Detroit, Buffalo, and Carolina - all teams they should of walked all over. They couldn't cover the number in any of those games as a road favorite. I think the Browns can stay with this Dallas team, as they proved they could hang with anyone last year at the dog-pound. An upset isn't out of the question. The improvements shown by this Cleveland team on the defensive end once they had a competent offense gives them hope. Combine that with the Dallas decline late last season, and the fact that it is week one, where teams aren't in sync yet, and you have a recipe for a low-scoring affair. This game has the highest total for week one, pushing close to 50. Neither offense will be in mid-season form yet, so I'll take the UNDER too.