Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

The New England Patriots will open the season on the road at Cincinnati. This will be the first look at New England's offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Van Pelt has always had the priority to run the ball, and they might have a good chance of success against a Cincinnati defense that struggled against the run last season. The Bengals allowed over 136 yards per contest a year ago which ranked tied for 26th worst in the NFL. It looks like the bengals will be without Ja'Marr Chase, and their lack of a running game may allow the Pats to focuse on Tee Higgins. Opening week has shown that +8 to +11.5 road favorites have carryied the mail as they are 34-20 ATS. I like New England.

New England continues to have all kinds of problems on offense averaging 17.6 points the last five contests. The most points they scored during that anemic stretch is 22. The offensive line has taken a big step back from a year ago, losing Trent Brown to free agency, an injury to their starting center, along with the loss of star TE Rob Gronkowski to retirement. Gronk was not just Tom Brady's best target in the passing game but also an outstanding blocker. The ground game has been awful, ranked #22 in yards, #28 in yards per carry (3.5). And WR Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) has missed practice this week. Cincinnati is a big home dog, but hasn't packed in the season. The last four games they lost to the Raiders by seven points, the Steelers by six, the Browns by eight, while upsetting the Jets (22-6). And NFL road teams with a winning record off two straight losses as a favorite are 10-31 ATS against losing teams. Take Cincinnati as a Max Play.

Cincinnati has failed to cover the spread in just six of their last 22 games yet they are getting a ton of points in this one. This team has talent on both sides of the line, but they face the great Tom Brady in this game. The Bengals are off a bad game at Dallas, further encouraging bettors to take the Patriots. But, memories are short. Two weeks ago the Bengals crushed another AFC East team in the Dolphins, 22-7, with a dominant defensive performance. The Bengals are #11 in the NFL defensively in yards allowed. They held Miami to 189 passing yards and just 62 rushing. Cincinnati also went on the road and beat the Jets, 23-22 earlier this season. The Bengals have an experienced, balanced offense with QB Andy Dalton (five TDs, two picks), RB Jeremy Hill and one of the top wideouts in the league in AJ Green (518 yards). Dalton is second in the NFL in yards passing and is up to a 67.4-percent completion percentage, the eighth best in the league. Cincinnati is better coached than many people think and a strong bounce-back squad at 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after a loss. The Patriots still have questions on the offensive line, which has played better than last year. Let's remember who Tom and company played last week. Today they will not be facing the Browns and this is a terrific Cincinnati defensive front. The Bengals are 11-5-1 ATS against the AFC and on a 9-2 ATS run on the road. They haven't been this big an underdog in two years, winning 27-10 at the Saints as a +8.5 puppy. Play the Bengals to keep it close.