Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Erratic Cincinnati plays its second straight on the road. They've been a touchdown favorite twice this season....and lost both straight up to New England (16-10) and Washington (38-33). The Bengals are on a 6-8-1 ATS run. The defense is 21st in yards allowed, 24th in points given up, and 26th against the run, surrendering 146 yards per game. Cleveland has just one victory but has hung in there with losses by six points to the Giants, four to Las Vegas, and 4 last week in a 20-16 loss at Philadelphia as a +8.5 underdog. They're home in a divisional game and Cleveland has won the last five at home against Cincinnati. Play Cleveland. 

Joe Burrow is expected to start for Cincinnati, but he still is battling a calf strain and that could hamper him against the Browns, who have won eight of the past 10 meetings against the Bengals. Cleveland is hoping Deshaun Watson can finally give it some stability at the quarterback position and he has many talented receivers, including Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore along with Nick Chubb at running back. The Browns have a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz and they beefed up their defensive line by signing Dalvin Tomlinson and Obo Okoronkwo. Cincinnati could have an early-season hangover after narrowly missing out on playing in the Super Bowl for the second straight season. The Bengals still have a strong receiver corps with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but Burrow's health is still the question mark in this game. The UNDER is 7-0 in the Bengals' past seven September games and the Browns are 3-0-1 UNDER their past four home contests and six of their last seven games overall last season stayed UNDER. Cincinnati finished 6-3 UNDER its last nine games in 2022-23. Take the Browns as a Max Play and the UNDER.

Cleveland's new QB Deshaun Watson didn't look sharp in his first game with 131 yards, no TDs, and one pick. It was his first game in 700 days. The Browns went 4-of-13 on third down and rank 20th in the league on third down. The Browns' defense is seventh in the NFL on third down and has allowed 31 total points in the last two games. Cleveland is 67-44 UNDER the total in December contests. Cincinnati's defense is 12th in the league in yards surrendered and 13th in points given up (21.3 pg). And the Bengals are 79-52 UNDER the total against teams that average 350+ yards per game. Take Cleveland/Cincinnati UNDER the total.