Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

Chicago is averaging only 15.5 points per game and that is third-to-last in the league and the Bears come off an ugly 12-7 loss to Washington when Justin Fields was sacked five times and finished 14 of 27 for 190 yards and a touchdown. The Bears obviously have problems on the offensive line and that will be a huge issue against the Patriots, who have allowed a total of only 15 points their last two games against Detroit and Cleveland. Bill Belichick has played mostly a conservative offense with Bailey Zappe under center and Mac Jones could be rusty if he returns from an injury. Chicago does have an effective secondary with five interceptions and only four TD passes allowed and Rhamondre Stevenson (5.1 yards per carry) figures to get plenty of carries for New England. Chicago is 11-2 UNDER its past 13 October games and the Patriots are 6-1 UNDER their past seven Monday contests. The Bears have stayed UNDER four of their six games this year. Take the UNDER.

Chicago has plenty to prove, off an embarrassing home shutout loss to the defending champs. Since 1983, NFL teams off a preseason shutout loss are 35-24 SU and 35-23-1 ATS the following game. Two years ago the Texas were shut out at Arizona in Week 1, 32-0, and the next week won 32-7 at home vs. the Falcons. The 49ers were shut out in Week 2, 34-0 at home by Denver, then won 21-7 next week at San Diego. Three years ago the Packers were shut out at home in Week 1, 17-0 by Arizona, and the next week they won and covered 19-7 at the Rams. The Bears have a very good August QB rotation with talent and experience in Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer and Connor Shaw. John Fox wants to see more from a first-team offense that produced 13 yards (12 on one play) and zero points on three possessions last week. Some great news is that receivers Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White and Joshua Bellamy will see more time and have had strong practices this week. New England won't use Tom Brady much, if at all, and has young QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and rookie Jacoby Brissett. The Pats put up 34 points on the Saints last week. It's good to fade a home team off a home win scoring 30 points or more, going 36-22 ATS since 1983. The last time it happened was a year ago when Carolina beat Miami at home, 31-30, then the next week lost at home to the Patriots, 17-16. Go with the Bears. 

The Patriots are dialed in right now and coming off a huge beatdown over their division rival the New York Jets on Monday Night. The whole nation saw this team absolutely embarrass a good Jets team. Prior to that, they put up 45 on Detroit, beat the Colts (scoring 31 in the process) and hang 39 on another Super Bowl caliber team in the Steelers. Right now no one wants to fade this Pats team. They are poised to take homefield advantage in the AFC for the entire playoffs. The numbers look scary for the Pats on offense and it looks impossible to slow them down. They are going to become a good fade against the number at some point and I'm banking that it starts this week. The fact is, teams that score 45 or more points in consecutive weeks are 36.4% winners in their next game ATS and 33% on the road as a favorite. Sometimes we get blinded by what we just saw and it jades out our perspective on what we think of them in their next game. The Bears are playing as good defensively as any team in football right now. There have been just two teams all season that have topped the 20 point mark against them. They have enough offense to score on a weak New England defense that is ranked 31st in yards allowed. The Pats have not fared well playing after Monday Night as they have not covered any of their last four. The Bears are sitting at 6-1 ATS in their last seven in the role of a dog. I like Chicago here.