Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals

QB Joe Burrow played in Week 1 in his first game since wrist surgery. He will get more time and has experienced backups in Jake Browning and Logan Woodside. Cincinnati's defense, though, allowed 390 yards to Tampa Bay. Chicago is playing its third preseason game, with the offense rolling up 21 and 33 points against Houston and Buffalo. QBs Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien, and Austin Reed all played last week totaling 199 passing yards as the offense had 340 yards. Chicago is on a 7-0 run OVER the total in preseason. Take Cincinnati/Chicago OVER the total. 

Chicago started Andy Dalton in the season opener against the Rams, but the offense looked just as bad as it has for two years, and the calls for rookie Justin Fields to take over are growing louder. The Rams' secondary was too much for Dalton to find many big openings, and he finished 27 of 38 for 206 yards behind a shaky offensive line. One bright spot was David Montgomery, who carried 16 times for 108 yards and a touchdown, but the Bears will have to have more luck opening it up to get more points on the board. Meanwhile, Cincinnati had a good opening week with a 27-24 overtime victory over Minnesota when linebacker Germaine Pratt recovered Dalvin Cook's fumble to set up a 33-yard field goal by Evan McPherson as time expired. Joe Burrow went 20 of 27 for 261 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in his return from a season-ending injury in 2020. Joe Mixon ran for 127 yards and Ja'Marr Chase caught five passes for 101 yards for the Bengals. The UNDER is 12-4-2 in Cincinnati's past 18 games as a road underdog, and the Bengals are 12-5-2 UNDER their past 19 road games overall. Chicago is 19-7 UNDER following a loss and 14-5 UNDER overall its past 19 home games. Cincinnati is 36-17-2 ATS its past 55 September games and 8-3-1 ATS in Week 2. The Bears are also 3-7 ATS their last 10 games overall. I have two picks on this game. Play the Bengals ATS and the UNDER.

The Bears are rebuilding under new coach Matt Nagy. The team played in the Hall of Fame game, losing 17-16 to the Ravens. The offense was unimpressive, with two interceptions while the ground game had just 65 yards rushing on 19 carries. Nagy said his new offense is in the early stages of development and it looked that way. The QB rotation has young Mitch Trubisky, along with journeymen Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray. They have a ton of work to do on on offense that last season was #30 in total yards, last in passing, #29 in points (16.5 pg). Cincinnati is home with plenty to prove after a disappointing 2017 campaign. The Bengals have far more talent, depth and continuity, with 16-year head coach Marvin Lews. The team brings back almost all of their receivers from 2017, as well as Pro Bowl tight end Tyler Eifert, who played in just two games last year. The five players in Cincinnati's secondary (Dre Kirkpatrick, William Jackson, Darqueze Dennard, George Iloka and Shawn Williams) were all drafted and developed by the Bengals. The unit has been one of the most stable in the league and looks like one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati dominated Tampa Bay at home in last August's preseason opener (23-12) with 140 yards rushing, even using starting QB Andy Dalton. They hold all the cards in this one and the wagering value is for home team to win the game. Play Cincinnati on the moneyline.

The Cincinnati Bengals knew their playoff hopes revolved around Monday Night's game vs. Pittsburgh, and they put it all on the line. They had the a 10-point lead going into the fourth quarter and let it slip away in an ugly, 23-20 loss. It was a rough and physical game, and they came away banged up, bruised, and disappointed. Cincinnati is now 5-7 and the playoffs are pretty much out of reach. I expect a big letdown by their defense that is going to be banged up and on short rest. Chicago is 3-9, and playoff hopes for this team have gone up in smoke entering this one on a five-game losing streak. The Bears have generated fewer than 300 yards of combined offense in their last two games. While that may offer the appearance of a team that can't move the ball, history paints a different picture. A team having generated fewer than 300 total yards in total over their last two games plays OVER the total 65% of the time as oddsmakers over-adjust. Take the OVER.