Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay blew a shot to clinch the NFC South last week in a 23-13 loss at home to the Saints as a favorite. In their last four games as a favorite, the Bucs averaged 16.75 points while losing two of those straight up. The Buccaneers are 24-43 ATS against teams that average 5.7 or fewer yards per pass. Carolina lost to Tampa Bay in the first meeting on the road, 21-18, in December but covered. The Panthers are 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points, plus 19-7 ATS after scoring six or fewer points. They're also 38-21 ATS at home off a non-conference tilt, 82-56 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent, and 35-16 ATS at home after getting outgained by 100 or more total yards in the last game. Play Carolina as a Max Play. 

Tampa Bay has lost six of seven after a 27-20 defeat against Indianapolis on Sunday when Baker Mayfield played through a right ankle injury and threw for 199 yards and two TDs, but lost a fourth-quarter fumble. He is expected to play this week although he won't be near 100% healthy. The Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS as favorites and 4-11-1 ATS their past 16 home games and have no business laying many points even against Carolina, which is actually 5-2-1 ATS its past eight games versus NFC South opponents. The best thing going for the Panthers this week is the fact they have some new coaches and Frank Reich was fired before completing a season with the team. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will serve as the interim head coach and Thomas Brown will be assisted by Jim Caldwell to take over play-calling duties. Carolina is 40-17 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and Tampa Bay is 9-3 OVER as a home favorite of 3.0-10.0 points. A coaching change usually means a new lease on life for a struggling team. Take the Panthers as a Max Play and the OVER.

Carolina can claim the NFC South title by winning their next two games, which would be a huge accomplishment considering the way their season started under Matt Ruhle, who was eventually fired. Steve Wilks has the Panthers playing hard and all the players would like to have him back next season and winning the division would almost assuredly result in taking off the interim label. Carolina has won three of four following its 37-23 trouncing of Detroit, which allowed 320 yards rushing and the Panthers totaled 570 yards of offense as they covered the spread for the seventh time in nine games. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been historically bad against the number with a 1-11-1 ATS record its past 13 games. The Buccaneers had to go overtime to eke out a 19-16 win over lowly Arizona with Tom Brady completing 32 of 48 for 281 yards and a touchdown and two interceptions. The Bucs are averaging a paltry 17.7 points per game and they are dead last in rushing yardage. Carolina won the first meeting 21-3 on Oct. 23 as a 13-point underdog. Sam Darnold was more than adequate against the Lions finishing 15 of 22 for 250 yards and a TD with no picks and D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard combined to run for 290 yards. Take the Panthers as a Max Play.

Carolina, off of an 18-10 loss at New Orleans as a touchdown underdog, plays hard for this coaching staff. They also won at Arizona, 34-10, as a +7 dog and at Atlanta, 19-13, as a dog. The Panthers are 8-3 ATS as a road underdog and 40-22 ATS revenging a home loss to the same opponent. Carolina is a big underdog again, but they have a chance due to their defense. This Panthers D is second in the NFL in total yards allowed and against the pass, which is what Tampa Bay prefers to do. The defense is also No. 10 on third down, and the team is 26-12 ATS after scoring 14 or fewer in two straight contests. Tampa Bay hasn't been dominant down the stretch with a 28-24 comeback win against the Jets last week as a 14-point favorite and a 9-0 loss to New Orleans three weeks ago as double-digit chalk. The Bucs are 23-40 ATS against offenses that average 5.7 or fewer passing yards per attempt while the Panthers have covered six of the last eight at Tampa Bay. Play Carolina. Also take the OVER here. The Bucs have averaged 32.1 points per game in this building and have scored 28+ in all but one of their last seven games. While I think Tampa Bay could take their foot off the gas here, this total is very low for a team that scores like they do. Back Carolina and the OVER