Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants

The New York Giants were an upset winner vs Tennessee last week 21-20. A gutsy call to go for a two-point conversion late spearheaded the win. The Giants did just enough to win. They could be set for a letdown as they host Carolina and Baker Mayfield this week. Carolina came up short vs Cleveland last week 26-24. The win suddenly has the Giants posted as a slight favorite for this one, but I think the motivational edge goes to Carolina here. A team off a 1-point win facing a team off a 2-point loss has covered just 33% of all games, so the motivational angle certainly has some merit. A home favorite that had a losing record last season and is playing a conference game is a woeful 97-163 ATS. Make the play on Carolina.

Carolina's bubble has burst, losing three straight, including a 21-18 loss to the Eagles as a favorite. The Panthers are still without star offensive force Christian McCaffrey, while new QB Sam Darnold looks like the old Sam Darnold with the Jets, throwing 4 TDs and 6 picks over the last three games with 12 sacks. Carolina is 7-17 ATS against losing teams and 5-12-1 ATS as a road favorite. The Giants play their second straight home game, and New York has been saddled with a difficult schedule with games against the Rams, Saints, Cowboys, and Broncos. They upset those Saints, 27-21, as a +7 dog as QB Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards. The Giants are 48-30 ATS after gaining 99 or fewer rushing yards in two consecutive games, and NFL favorites like Carolina that just played a game with a negative-two turnover margin or worse are 58-102 ATS. Play New York.

Carolina comes off a bye week after going OVER three of its first four games this season following its 31-21 win over Cincinnati. Christian McCaffrey racked up 184 yards on 28 carries and Cam Newton had a solid outing in completing 15-of-24 for 150 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.  Andy Dalton threw for 352 yards, but he was picked off four times while throwing two TD passes for the Bengals. The Panthers lead the NFL in rushing yards (166.0 per game) giving them a potent dual threat with McCaffrey's running and Newton's passing. New York allows 23.8 points per game and comes off a 33-18 loss to New Orleans with the Saints gaining 170 yards on the ground and Drew Brees went 18-of-32 for 217 yards and Alvin Kamara rushed for 134 yards against the porous Giants defense. Carolina has gone OVER five straight times when following a bye week and the Giants don't bounce back well defensively as they are 17-5 OVER their last 22 games after giving up at least 150 rushing yards their previous game. The Panthers are 8-3 OVER their last 11 games and 8-3 OVER following a win. Play the OVER.

The Carolina Panthers are 13-0 on the season, and crushed the Atlanta Falcons at home 38-0 last week. They have started getting a bit too big for themselves, taking team selfies while the game was still going on as if they already won the Super Bowl. The pressure really starts to mount for these teams once they get to 13-0. There have been six such teams since 1989, and one common thread on five of the six was that they get the best defensive effort from their opponent, focused to take down the unbeaten team. The average points scored in these games is just 41.5 combined, with the UNDER prevailing in five of the six games, scoring 20 or fewer points in the five. The Giants certainly have given up a lot of yards, but they have done a good job of limiting the points scored off those yards, as they have allowed just one team all season to score more than 27 points. Carolina has really gotten the defense going in their last five games that show their opponent has been held to 16 points or fewer in four of them. This game is going to be the Giants Super Bowl, and the defense is going to step up. Make the play on the UNDER.

The New York Giants have embarrassed themselves in their first two games. They turned the ball over six times against Dallas in the opener, and then Eli Manning through four INTs for a quick death sentence vs. Denver. As a result, they have allowed 36 and 41 points, pushing this total up.  The Giants' defense is better than what it has shown so far. Having them on the field for 10 extra possessions in two games is just simply much too much to ask. The tunovers won't continue at this pace so expect the Giants to reduce the points given up to opponents moving forward. Carolina lost to Buffalo on the final play of the game last week in a gut-wrenching loss. With both of these teams coming in at 0-2, and knowing that the loser will start the season 0-3, I expect both to bring a lot of intensity to this game. For as criticized as the New York defense has been, they are still 17-8 to the UNDER in their last 25 games because they are often playing to inflated totals like this one. Carolina has played to a 19-7 mark to the UNDER in their last 26 at home vs. a team with a losing road record. New York is 16-5 UNDER in their last 21 road games after allowing 25+ in back-to-back games and under Tom Coughlin this team is 22-9 UNDER on the road in games with a total set at 46 or higher. Expect a big stand by the defenses, because 0-3 might mean over and out. Play this one UNDER the total.