Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints

Carolina has a new head coach in Dave Canales, the former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator. They heavily invested in upgrading the offensive line for second-year QB Bryce Young. They also got him some help trading for WR Diontae Johnson while TE Tommy Tremble came on strong at the end of last year. Carolina's defense was fourth in the NFL in yards allowed and 12th in yards per rushing attempt in 2023. They return talented defensive tackle Derrick Brown. The pass rush looks much improved with newcomers Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks with the Ravens) and D.J. Wonnum (8 sacks with the Vikings in 2023). Carolina is on a 9-2 run UNDER the total. New Orleans lost a lot of veteran players this offseason, including former star WR Michael Thomas. The Saints have a below-average offensive line that ranked 21st in rushing and 31st in yards per carry (3.6). The Saints also have an aging defense and are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six September games. And the last five meetings between these division rivals have all gone UNDER the total. Play Carolina + UNDER the total. 

Carolina came close in Chris Tabor's first game as interim head coach losing 21-18 to Tampa Bay and covering the 3.5-point spread and the game went OVER by two points. Chuba Hubbard ran for 104 yards and a TD for the Panthers and Bryce Young threw for 178 yards. New Orleans lost its third in a row and went OVER by 13 points as Detroit won 33-28. The Saints have gone OVER four of their past six games and they have been moneyburners with a 2-8 ATS record their past 10 games. Carolina is 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 meetings, including a 20-17 loss as a 3-point underdog on Sept. 18 when it pushed. New Orleans is 0-4-1 ATS against the NFC South and 0-7-1 ATS its past eight games against all NFC opponents. Amazingly, the Saints are 0-7 ATS their past seven at home and QB Derek Carr is questionable with a concussion. New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS as a favorite and the Panthers are 41-17 OVER their past 58 games as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points. Play the Panthers as a Max Play and the OVER.

The past five meetings have gone UNDER by an average of 14 points and New Orleans stayed UNDER for the seventh consecutive game dating to last season with its 16-15 win over Tennessee in Week 1. The Saints have allowed only 13.7 points in those seven games and they have stayed UNDER five straight versus the NFC South and they are 5-0 UNDER on the road. The Saints' defense did not allow a touchdown against the Titans and intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times, sacked him three times and stopped the Titans on 10 of 12 third-down plays. Derek Carr passed for 305 yards in his Saints debut, but they scored only one touchdown. Carolina also went UNDER while losing 24-10 to Atlanta as Bryce Young completed 20 of 38 for 146 yards and two interceptions. The Panthers ran the ball a time-consuming 32 times for 154 yards against the Falcons. Carolina is 7-1 UNDER its past eight September games, 9-3 UNDER overall as a home underdog and 10-4 UNDER in divisional games. Take the UNDER as a Max Play.

New Orleans has won three in a row and it has all but been eliminated from the playoffs unless the NFL decides to go to an extra team due to the Bills-Bengals Monday night game being canceled. Carolina will not be in the postseason no matter what happens, but the players have some motivation as they would like to go out on a good note for interim coach Steve Wilks, who they would prefer to be there next year although that is unlikely. The Panthers kept it close against Tampa Bay, but were eventual victims of Tom Brady and Mike Evans, who caught 10 passes for 207 yards, including touchdowns of 63,57 and 30 yards. The Saints beat Philadelphia 20-10 as the Eagles played without Jalen Hurts and Andy Dalton completed his first 13 passes and threw for 204 yards for New Orleans. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS the past 10 meetings, including a 22-14 victory on Sept. 25. Carolina has gone OVER four straight overall and four of five on the road and they are on a 5-2 ATS run. The Saints are 1-4 ATS versus the NFC South and the road team is 29-14 ATS the past 43 meetings. Carolina has averaged 26 points its past five games and Sam Darnold threw for 341 yards against the Buccaneers. Take the Panthers and the OVER.