Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas finished a two-game homestand with a Monday Night loss to Cincinnati, 27-20. They're on a 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS run down to backup QB Cooper Rush. The defense is 25th in yards allowed, 30th versus the run, allowing 141.9 yards on the ground per game, and 31st in points surrendered (28.2 per game). Carolina has had an excellent second half of the season. They beat New Orleans (23-22) and the Giants (20-17) as +7 underdogs and come off three close games to elite quarterbacks, losing to KC (30-27), Tampa Bay (26-23), and at Philadelphia (22-16). The Panthers' defense is as healthy as it's been all season, and they're on a 5-0 spread run. Play Carolina. 

Dallas is in a flat spot going up against the lowly Panthers with the Cowboys having three home games against NFC opponents on deck, including a Thanksgiving Day game against Washington. The Cowboys destroyed the awful New York Giants 49-17 on Sunday, but they are 2-8-1 ATS their past 11 games after scoring more than 30 points their previous game and 3-7-1 ATS following any win. Carolina has improved its defense recently allowing only 18.6 points its past three games. The Panthers have gone UNDER four straight home games and they are 5-0 UNDER their past five November games. Carolina also has gone UNDER their past three games by an average of 10 points and the Panthers are 9-3 UNDER following an ATS loss. Carolina hopes to have cornerback Jaycee Horn return to help slow down the Dallas passing attack as he has been out since the opening week with a hamstring injury. Take the Panthers and the UNDER as a Max Play.

The Dallas Cowboys, behind Dak Prescott, have what I think is the best offense in the NFL. The issue for Dallas is on the other side of the ball. While the offense is generating 417 yards per game, the defense is allowing 402. Carolina has seen an upgrade to its offense behind Sam Darnold. Darnold is throwing for 8.3 yards per attempt and 296 yards per game, and his ball security vastly improved as he has thrown just one pick. This game sets up nicely for a pair of offenses that tend to have their way, and Darnold over his career is 14-8 to the OVER when posted as a dog up to 8 points. Prescott has thrived at home as a favorite, leading to a 20-10 mark to the OVER in that role. Play this game to go OVER the total.

The undefeated Carolina Panthers are a dog here... hmmm. They beat two NFC East opponents (Philadelphia and Washington) by a combined 39 points and bring the third-highest scoring offense in the league into a stretch of four of five on the road beginning with Dallas. The Panthers are for real and they are now 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record. Dallas QB Tony Romo's return brought a lot of optimism to the Cowboys’ sideline, but the fact is he was shaky last week in Miami. The bumbling Dolphins lost the game more than Dallas won it. And now Romo and company must face a Panthers defense that has allowed just 16.2 points per game on the road. Carolina is fourth in the NFL in rushing, third in points scored, on a 6-2-1 run OVER the total, as well as 7-1 OVER versus the NFC. Meanwhile, Dallas is 23-8-3 OVER the total after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Since the arrival of Ron Rivera, the Panthers are 20-9 ATS vs. losing teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams at .400 or worse andd 21-11 ATS vs. poor defensive teams like Dallas (teams allowing 5.7+ yards per play). Meanwhile, under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 15-27 ATS in home games. Play Carolina and the OVER.