Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Robert Saleh is out and Jeff Ulbrich is in as the interim head coach and defensive coordinator for the New York Jets. A coaching change usually means an immediate positive effect on a team although Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with ankle and hamstring injuries. Rodgers has been sacked eight times his past two games and he has seven TD passes and four interceptions this season with just a 48.6 QB rating. Josh Allen will face the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL and the past five meetings have gone UNDER. The Jets have stayed UNDER three straight while averaging only 16.7 points per game and the Bills have gone UNDER their past two games against Baltimore and Houston. Buffalo is 5-1 UNDER its past six road games and the Jets are 14-6 UNDER against AFC opponents. Take the UNDER.

It will be cold and windy (14 MPH winds) in Buffalo for Sunday's AFC East rivalry. New York has scored 18 total points in the last two games behind backup QB Zach Wilson (5 TDs, 6 INTs). The offense is 29th in total yards, 30th in points (16 per game), and dead last on third down (25%). The defense is sixth in yards given up and seventh in points allowed (19.1 per game). The Jets are on an 18-8 run UNDER the total, including 13-5 UNDER versus the AFC East. Buffalo just fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after losing to Denver, 24-22. They're 7-2 UNDER the total with a defense that is fifth in points given up (18.4 per game). The Bills are on a 19-9 run UNDER and are 8-1 UNDER at home versus losing teams. These rivals played a 22-16 game when they met in September and had a 20-12 game when they met late last season in the Buffalo cold. Take New York/Buffalo UNDER the total as a Max Play. 

The teams split their two meetings in 2022 although New York covered the spread in both and both games easily stayed UNDER the total and the UNDER is 6-2 the past eight meetings. Aaron Rodgers will make his New York debut and will be reunited with his former offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, with whom Rodgers won two league MVP awards with Green Bay. The Jets' 2022 draft turned out well with cornerback Sauce Gardner and wideout Garrett Wilson winning the Defensive and Offensive Rookie of the Year awards. New York did a good job containing Buffalo QB Josh Allen as he was a combined 34 of 61 for 352 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in last season's two meetings. The Jets are 7-0 UNDER their past seven games versus AFC opponents and the Bills are 6-0 UNDER as favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. New York allowed only 19 points per game last season and normally that would be enough to get into the postseason, but a stagnant offense also averaged just 19 points per game. The Jets are hoping that will change with Rodgers' arrival and better receivers. The Jets went UNDER their final five games in 2022. Take the Jets as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Two strong defensive teams meet in the cold Buffalo December weather. It will be 39 degrees with rain and snow. New York's defense is fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed, plus sixth against the pass and in points allowed. New York's three quarterbacks have combined for as many TDs as interceptions (12) using third-stringer Mike White now. The Jets are 77-52 UNDER the total in December games, as well as 70-48 UNDER in the last four weeks of the regular season. Buffalo's defense is Top 10 in yards and points allowed. The Bills are 18-9 UNDER the total as a favorite. These teams played a 20-17 game four weeks ago and this looks like another fierce divisional defensive duel. Play New York/Buffalo UNDER the total.

New York had a four-game winning streak snapped as it lost 22-17 to New England, but the Jets obviously are a much better team than last year and they are 6th in the NFL in yards allowed and 11th in scoring defense. Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards against the Patriots, but he also was picked off three times although the Jets don't plan on changing quarterbacks in the near future. New York had also covered the spread while winning its previous four games and they are 4-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. Buffalo did not get the money against Green Bay winning 27-17 as a 10.5-point favorite and the Bills were outgained 398-369 and the Packers racked up 208 rushing yards on 31 carries. Josh Allen threw two interceptions and finished 13 of 25 for 218 yards and the game stayed UNDER by three points and the Bills now have gone UNDER five times in a row and the Jets have gone UNDER three straight. Buffalo is 22-8 UNDER on fieldturf surfaces and four of the past six meetings have stayed UNDER. New York has allowed an average of only 15.6 points its last five games. Take the Jets and the UNDER.