Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Last place New England has surprised winning two of three. However, the positive vibes end here. The Patriots have holes all over the place. The offense is 28th in total yards, 30th on third down (31.31%), and last in points (14.1 per game). New England's offensive line is poor averaging just 3.9 yards per rush and their two QBs have combined for as many TDs (16) as interceptions. The Patriots are 5-14 ATS as an underdog. After facing the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Chargers (two on the road) and winning all three, the Bills are home trying to clinch a playoff berth. Buffalo is fourth in total yards, sixth in points scored (26.9 per game), and No. 1 on third down (49.21%), while the defense is Top 10 in yards allowed and fourth in points given up (18.4 per game). The Bills are 44-18 ATS after a win by 3 points or less and have beaten New England the last two years on this field, 35-23 and 47-17. Lay the points with Buffalo.

New England kept it close last week before losing 21-17 at Las Vegas and now the Patriots will try to do the same at home against the Bills, who were fortunate to come out with a win over the Giants on Sunday night. Buffalo was outgained 316-297 by the previously weak New York offense and Josh Allen threw for only 169 yards with an interception. Mac Jones had one of his better games completing 24 of 33 for 200 yards although with one glaring interception against the Raiders. The Patriot defense actually has been decent and is No. 10 in the NFL in total yards allowed, but the problem has been turnovers. Buffalo is 0-6-1 ATS its past Week 7 games and showed plenty of vulnerability on offense against the Giants. Bill Belichick might use QB/WR Malik Cunningham more this week as a way to spark the offense. Take the points with the Patriots.

Decent weather in Buffalo for these offenses, sunny, 34 degrees, with no wind. And don't look for the offenses to play it safe as both teams have plenty to play for. The Bills have already locked up the AFC East but they can use a win for a shot at a higher seed and a postseason home-field edge. New England needs a win to make the playoffs. The Patriots managed just 60 yards on the ground in the first meeting versus Buffalo and have struggled to run of late, so they will have to open things up and pass more. New England is 53-39 OVER the total as an underdog, plus 27-16 OVER in January games. Buffalo has great balance on offense, fourth in the NFL in total yards, seventh in rushing (142.8 yards per game on the ground), and second in yards per carry (5.3). And the Bills are 22-10 OVER the total after four or more straight victories. Play New England/Buffalo OVER the total.

Buffalo had a whirlwind week, flying to Detroit to play the Browns in Week 11 and then the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Bills did what they needed to do to win both games straight-up and now the Bills have had a week to recover as they face the Patriots, who they have beaten four of the past five meetings including a 47-17 rout in last year's playoffs. Josh Allen threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns as the Bills pulled out a thrilling 28-25 victory over Detroit and he also ran for 78 yards on 10 carries. Tyler Bass won it with a 45-yard field goal with two seconds left and Buffalo won its sixth in eight games. New England had been playing good defense while winning three straight, but then it lost 33-26 to Minnesota with Kirk Cousins torching the Pats for 299 yards on 30 of 37 with three TDs. Mac Jones also had a good game finishing with a career-high 382 yards and two TDs, but he was let down by the Patriots' defense. Buffalo is 7-2 UNDER its past nine games and New England had stayed UNDER its three previous games. The Bills are 6-0 UNDER their past six road contests and the Patriots are 27-13 UNDER after an ATS loss. Look for New England to clamp down defensively, but not enough to get the win. Take the Bills on the moneyline and play the UNDER.