Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Buffalo has won two of the past three meetings at Kansas City and the loss was the Chiefs' miraculous comeback in the final seconds in the 2021-22 playoffs. The Bills come off a bye week after losing 37-34 to Philadelphia while the Chiefs come off a 27-19 home loss to Green Bay on Sunday night when Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes by throwing for 267 yards and three TDs. The Chiefs have lost three of their past five games while averaging only 19.4 points and they are 6-2 UNDER their past eight games. Buffalo has stayed UNDER six of eight overall and four in a row following a loss. Kansas City is 6-1 UNDER after an ATS loss and 5-1 UNDER after yielding more than 350 total yards its previous game. The Bills are 22-7 ATS their past 29 games after totaling more than 150 yards rushing their previous game. Buffalo is 11-0-1 ATS as a conference road underdog of more than one point against a team that is coming off a straight-up favorite loss. The Bills have gone UNDER 10 of 13 road games and the Chiefs are 14-3 UNDER at home. Buffalo has had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. Take the Bills and the UNDER.

Buffalo is the better team here. The defensive difference between these two teams is particularly striking. Buffalo is first in the league, allowing just 17 points per game. Their last five games: 14, 21, 15, 10 and 17. Contrast that to Kansas City's 21.4 per game, allowing 28, 10, 34, 24 and 21 in their last five. The Bills are 10-6-2 ATS after dominating the Patriots 47-17 and they are looking to avenge last year's loss in the playoffs to the Chiefs and they already have beaten Kansas City 38-20 in the regular season on Oct. 10 when Josh Allen threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. The Bills come into this game winners of five in a row (4-0-1 ATS) and they are 9-3-2 ATS their past 14 games as road underdogs, 9-4 ATS on the road overall. Also, Buffalo is 11-5-1 ATS after winning its previous game by at least 14 points. Kansas City is 4-11 ATS its past 15 games after scoring at least 30 points its previous game and the Chiefs routed the Steelers 42-21. Buffalo did the same to New England as Allen had a near-perfect game completing 21 of 25 for 308 yards with five TDs and no picks. Devin Singletary ran for 81 yards on 16 carries and Dawson Knox had five catches for 89 yards for the Bills, who can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs offensively. As mentioned, the Bills clearly are superior defensively as they led the league in yards allowed (272.8 per game) and scoring defense (17.0). Patrick Mahomes finished 33 of 54 for 272 yards with two TDs and two interceptions in the October game and the Bills obviously have experience defending against him. This is a high posted total that isn't respecting Buffalo's defense and the Chiefs gave up only 257 yards against Pittsburgh and that was second only to the Rams yielding 183 versus Arizona. First of all, take the UNDER in this game. And for my NFL Game of the Month side, take the Bills to cover.